Too Pessimistic?

Not that one should waffle back and forth with each model run, but as you get closer to an event, presumably model guidance should improve.  After several cycles of trending drier, the 18Z models have come back around wetter, owing to more precip from the low deepening as it exits the coast.  Under the the latest runs, it would be snow at the onset, to sleet, to a freezing rain glaze on top.  Could be, but I’m not ready to fall for this tease yet.  For now, we’ll just wait for more data to come in and watch the system as it begins to organize tonight over the TN Valley.  Tonight’s model runs should be more reliable with fresh data included in their initializations.  We’ll see if we have reversed the trend back a little wetter or not.  Any way you slice this, it will not be a heavy event.  The question is…will this be just a nuisance or create minor travel headaches.  More tonight.


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