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There’s No Way to Avoid the Ice

Any way you slice it, tonight will be icy.  Even if you dodge the bullet of sleet and freezing rain this evening, there will be a ton of water left around to freeze as temps fall to around 20.

An impressive surge of cold air has been dropping temps more than 20 degrees over the course of just 2 hours. Temps are running about 36-37 in the Triangle with 34 numbers showing up in the counties just to the north. I don’t expect the Triangle to hit freezing until at least 8pm. So there’s probably not going to be a great deal of freezing rain, in favor of some minor accumulations of sleet.  However, the heavy precip is over and what will come thru in the next couple hours will be lighter than what we saw earlier today. So, look for a lull in the precip for another hour or so and then sleet showers mixed with freezing rain…maybe a little snow late?

Sleet falling will be more efficient in cooling the surface and especially warm roadways. This will set the stage for hazardous roads once the temps get a few degrees below freezing.

So, expect minor sleet accumulations and maybe a little glaze in the trees and elevated surfaces. But the real story will be icy roads as the evening wears on and especially as near that low of 20.

 

The Week Ahead…

A friend gave me a hard time for no posts in 6 months.  I try to limit posts to high impact events, and since we’ve nothing much to talk about, it’s been this long.

but, here you go…

Definitely wet later tonight and tomorrow.  Here is the NWS rainfall potential…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nothing to be concerned about here, but flooding will be a problem in many places in GA.

Then, a cold front swings thru late Mon and an insignificant wave develops along the front and throws a little moisture back overnight Mon into early Tues, which may end as a little minor snow.  Just a nuisance event, if that, but the front leaves us in the 40s, at best, for the foreseeable future under full sun.

Later next week, as a winter-like arctic airmass is in place, we have the potential for a more significant snow event.  But this far out, a number of solutions are on the table, and the latest model jogs are to the north, not favoring NC snow.

I shall endeavor to do better as the winter gets cranked up!

Quick Andrea Update

Wet.  That about says it all.  See the NWS’s rainfall potential for the next couple days.

984130_517044081694410_1080932112_nShowers today become more steady tomorrow as Andrea approaches.  The center of circulation should come pretty close to Raleigh mid-day Friday, however that really makes it sound more important than it is.  The fact of the matter is that the impact of this storm is a broad swath of heavy rains, breezy conditions (and as with most tropical systems there’s outside chance of some weak isolated tornadoes down east.)

Happy first tropical system of the season!

 

 

Wide Left

…and not even by a little bit.  A couple of days ago this looked like a couple-hundred-mile near-miss.  Tonight, it’s kind of amazing to concede this system will go way north and concentrate the max snows north VA and MD then continue NE to the Northeast.  A Northeast solution seemed an outlier solution just last night.  That which befuddles me, intrigues me.

For NC, after tonight’s rain, we’re left with a passing snow shower tomorrow morning, at best.  The bigger story will be the wind.

Looking ahead, I’ll venture to say that a spring teaser warm-up follows end of the week, but after that there will be a cold snap.  Will the cold snap combine for a cold 40° rain or a little frozen mischievous?

Cold’s Coming, But Will the White?

Quick update…

First, sorry I couldn’t post on the non-event on last Friday AM.  I was on a mission trip and too busy to post on something that wasn’t gonna happen.

Now to the upcoming…a huge trough in the eastern US comes into play over the weekend.  We have the possibility of a couple of winter storms from late Sat thru Thurs.  Sat night into Sun, there is much uncertainty about the possibility a coastal storm will develop with the many-times-elusive wrap around moisture for snow.  At this point I’ll buy into a couple of flurries.

But then, things get more interesting a couple days later when a southern-track, Dixie-special could be on the table.  In my mind, this may be the end all, be all to cap the 2013 winter season.  Could be waaaay nice.

More on this later in the week, just a heads up for now.

 

 

Snow Shower

Looks like the flurry I advertised a couple days back will come to fruition this evening and then again with another impulse overnight.    Again, nothing to run to the store about, just enough flakes to be pretty.  There is a little snow in Greensboro and a broken line of flurries should move thru Raleigh by 6:30 or so.  Then, later on tonight, maybe 11-12, another band of snow showers rotates thru.  This band may be a little more impressive, but still nothing to get worked up about.  Enjoy!

Up next, late Tuesday into Wednesday, there is a remote chance that a northern stream disturbance would hook up with a southern stream wave for coastal cyclogenesis, but at this time it looks like they won’t phase, which leaves us seasonal and dry.

 

 

 

And, the Dance is Over

Unless, I’m missing something that an old, washed-up, out-of-practice meteorologist should be seeing…I’m gonna turn the lights up and declare the dance over.

There could be a couple convective bursts that lay down another layer or two.  But at this point, any more appreciable snow in areas where there is just a dusting now, would shock me.

Enjoy what you have and be careful with black ice tomorrow morning.