The core feederbands are about to impinge on the coast in the next couple of hours.  The long range Wilmington radar nicely depicts the storm and you can just make out the eye.  Follow this link:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=ltx&product=N0Z&loop=no

It’s like the Matrix…bullet dodged.

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Everyone is looking for the big slice to the right as Earl still continues moving NNE this morning.  Continuing on it’s current trajectory without any more bend to the right would result in a landfall just southwest of Ocracoke.  This represents the worst case scenario at this point.  But the thinking continues to be that we will see Earl head due north early this afternoon and then NNE this evening.

Earl has eased up in intensity since peaking early this morning as a strong category 4 with 145 mph winds and a minimum pressure of 928 mb. The 11am advisory should lower the winds back to 130-135 and the intensity at “closest brush” with the coast should be something that approximates that as a strong cat 3 or minimal cat 4.  Anyway you look at it, it’s a major hurricane and the coast is lucky to not get a direct hit.  Should be gusty winds all the way back to the I-95 corridor, but nothing like it could be with a more westerly track.

The first rain band is about to make it’s way onshore near ILM, but is dissipating into the dry air in place. The eye should be visible in long range radar images early after lunchtime.

At this point it’s watch and wait for the blink!

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I’ve tried not to weigh in on Earl, but i’ve been bombarded with inquiries.  So while I love you all dearly, it seems easier to post here in a blanket statement than to answer individual emails

There’s good news and bad news…which do you want first?

OK…the bad news is that Earl has strengthened this evening.  The satellite presentation is impressive with a crisp-edged eye structure.  The 11pm advisory will increase the winds to 140-145mph.

The good news is that, while we can’t be certain, it does look like the eye of Earl will pass offshore of Cape Hatteras by about 50 to 75 miles.  Problem is that the hurricane-force sustained winds extend out about 90 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds about 240ish.  So, while the immediate coast is not out of the woods, because we’re not completely sure of the track, it seems most likely that most of the NC coast will have an active 12 or so hours tomorrow night with a quick return to normal as Earl pulls away quickly.  In his wake, we have a hot day with the compensating subsidence making for temps near 100.  But then things get nice for the rest of the holiday weekend with the passage of a cold front.

On the heels of Earl is Fiona, which is no threat.  But more intriguing in its potential for trouble is Gaston for the following weekend.

Final note…the pic on the top banner is of Earl taken yesterday from the International Space Station.  Enjoy!

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