Forecast Headaches

The 0Z runs are in and there’s no question that they are wetter.  Some up and down is expected, but we have two runs with a little more moisture depicted.  It will be quite cold at the surface thru this event, so the precip will all be frozen or freezing in Raleigh.  I’m thinking that the precip doesn’t begin until 2pm in Raleigh, probably as a brief period of snow then quickly mixing with and changing to sleet for the majority of the event.  Later in the afternoon to early evening, we’ll probably see a change over to freezing rain and drizzle for a light glaze overtop of the snow/sleet accumulation.  How much accumulation?  Since most of the accumulation looks to be sleet and since the nature of the precip will be showery, I’d be pleasantly surprised for more than 1/2″ in Raleigh.  Plus, you’ll get a little glaze overtop.  I think the media outlets have done a good job in emphasizing how little it will take on untreated roads for them to become very slick. The past several days have, obviously, been very cold and tonight we’ll dip to the lower 20s.  All this to say that, ice on untreated roads in your subdivision or cul de sac could make for fun sledding if we can get a thin layer down.

As I said earlier this afternoon, we’ll see how the precip shield breaks out to the west of NC overnight.  And we have one more full model cycle to look at late tomorrow morning.  For now, it looks like areas just east of Raleigh, north and east to Elizabeth City and the Tidewater of VA stand the best chance of significant ice issues.

More tomorrow AM.

Comments (1)

  1. 7:12 AM, January 25, 2013doug walter  / Reply

    Good weekend to go camping!

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