« Archives in September, 2015

Potential for Widespread Flooding and a NC Landfall of Joaquin

I’m fielding a lot of questions about the complicated and serious threat of flooding this weekend.  I thought I would do a quick post now to address a couple issues before a more comprehensive post later today.

There are two separate (but related) issues to deal with:

1) an inverted trough that will act as a focusing mechanism for deep moisture transport and heavy rains through the Carolinas.

2) Joaquin and it’s eventual track that with the potential for landfall in NC or VA

The heavy rains come first regardless of the what Joaquin does.  And the impact of these heavy rains looks to be widespread flooding over the Carolinas.

This afternoon Joaquin continues to steadily strengthen…winds up to 85mph, pressure down to 968mb.  It’s meandering in the eastern Bahamas now and is expected to be dragged north and west over the next couples days.  Will it remain offshore as earlier depicted in the modeling? or will it make that turn to the left (west) into NC or VA, as is the trend with a lot of the numerical guidance today?

More complete discuss later.  For now, begin to think ahead as to any preparations you might need to make, especially in areas prone to flooding.