Michael is gaining strength offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. If not for stiff westerly wind sheer, Michael would have the potential to strengthen rapidly. As it appears now, Michael should have to deal with significant wind shear throughout its evolution. Hopefully, that will limit its intensity. There is uncertainty to the extent of that influence. So, while I would expect Michael to be a borderline 2/3 storm at landfall…it’s certainty possible for it only to be a minimal hurricane or, as some outlier models suggest, a cat 4. I’ll remind you that track forecast has much higher skill than intensity forecasts.
So what does it matter for NC?
Landfall should be along the Florida panhandle. Then, the track is likely to be just inland from the coast all the way up through SC and NC before exiting the Outer Banks. Again, the exact location of the center of Michael isn’t so important except that a cat 3 moving inland fast (even as far south as Florida) will dictate where the gustiest of winds will be.
And speaking of fast-moving… it looks like this may be a saving grace with Michael. Still, we’ll expect gusty, perhaps damaging, winds in eastern NC along with 3-5″ of unwelcome rain.
Lots of time to figure it all out before impacts in the Thursday timeframe. Of course, there’s still some discrepancy in the thinking on that as well. Stay tuned.
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