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We are now entering the “short term modeling window”. To this point, we’ve been using large-scale models for general macroscale storm guidance. There is now general consensus on the evolution of the storm such that, the track of the surface low (and coastal front with its warm push intrusion) probably won’t differ by more than 20 to 50 miles. Those 20-50 miles will be crucial for those on the eastern edge battle front, which will be near Wake County.

Let’s back up to clarify… barring any crazy last minute monkey-wrenches, the outline from last night holds. In Raleigh, we should see snow begin 4-6am Sunday morning. This will be short-lived. Expect the snow to change to sleet quickly. I expect the sleet to be short-lived as well.

The snow and sleet should lay down coverage from a light coating to an inch or so. Then, the freezing rain begins. The question becomes how long does the cold air damming remain in place against the intrusion of the warm air behind the coastal front moving from SE to NW. Here’s where the short term modeling comes into play…

Up to this point, we’ve been using large scale, coarse model grid points. Now, in the short term, the grid spacing gets much tighter, and more reliable for resolving local-scale problems like… “How far west will the surface freezing line make it?” This is key to Raleigh. The longer we stay below freezing, the more crippling accrual of ice we get.

No need to guess tonight, I’ll provide more precise ideas on what that looks like in a post tomorrow. Tonight, the key takeaway is that Sunday looks to be a treacherous travel situation. Make alternate plans.

Bonus… some of the short term models suggest that we may see a period of snow Sat afternoon. Should be inconsequential, but pretty!