Weathertrex.com

I’m sorry to not have posted until now. There were technical problems with the website. (perhaps I was hacked by the Europeans so I couldn’t poo poo their model 😉

While certainly it is too early to declare an American model victory, what can be said is that the deterministic Euro and its ensembles have steadily ticked up from 0 to 3+” for central and eastern NC over the last 4 runs. It should be reiterated that the Euro skill scores are statistically superior over all global models, but as they say… you can’t win ’em all. That appears to be what’s going on here.

Snow looks likely for a good swath of NC tomorrow thru early Friday AM. The NAM, while maybe overdone, has displayed remarkable run-to-run consistency. It is insistent on strong frontogenetic forcing which would drive heavy precip rates. Those heavy precip rates will be key in overcoming warm antecedent ground temps.

A concern with all this strong forcing is how far north the warm nose will extend. The warm nose (elevated layer of temps > 0° C) will turn snow over to sleet and reduce totals in those areas. Right now it looks like the warm nose will make it no farther north than central to southern Wake county.

I’d like to digest the complete set of 12Z model runs before passing judgment. And, of course there’s a problem with the GFS coming in this cycle. At this point it’s about an hour late.

The skinny… Precip starts late tomorrow AM as rain or rain/snow mix. Changes to snow for a good chunk of NC. Mixes with and changes to sleet in the south. Storm totals highest from Raleigh north and east. Raleigh is probably 2-4″, up to 6-8″ toward Rocky Mount and to Edenton.