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Here’s the story of a lovely lady who was…

It’s too early to know if Florence will fulfill her Brady Bunch destiny and pass over Henderson (NC) or not, but any way you slice it, the chances for a potentially crippling natural disaster across central and eastern NC are on the rise.

Ensemble track guidance continues to converge on a solution that would bring Florence ashore between Myrtle Beach and Morehead City.  But remember, it is important not to focus on the singular point that is the center of circulation.  Significant wind damage will radiate out many miles (especially east and north) from the eye.  And while the fact that Florence looks to be at least category 3 and probably 4 at landfall is concerning from a wind standpoint…what happens afterwards with a meandering storm and its torrential rains is potentially more troublesome for a wider region.

So let’s break this down.  Assuming current trends continue we would expect…

• landfall near the NC/SC as a low end Cat 4 storm (max sustained winds near 140mph) Thursday late afternoon/evening.
• after landfall, the center of circulation should continue inland toward central NC and toward the VA border, losing forward speed.
• tropical storm force winds will be felt across the entire state, and hurricane force wind gusts would be realized along and to the east of the track more than 100 miles inland.
• widespread downed trees and power outages should be expected with the potential that many of those power outages could last a week or more.
• without any real steering currents, Florence may meander about NC for a couple of days dumping buckets of rain across eastern NC.  10″ will be common with extremes in excess of two feet, maybe more.

I don’t mean to imply that the above general outline is what everyone will experience.  However, many locations in NC will be affected by these conditions.  Make preparations and alternate plans now so that, dependent on storm track and resultant rainfall maxima, you will be comfortable to ride out the storm, which may last a couple days.

The good news is that we have several days to prepare, continue to monitor track and intensity, and hopefully be able to narrow down exactly where the worst will be as we get to mid-week.