First let’s be clear. The previous post on ensembles was supposed to give broad brushed background information behind the mechanics of ensemble modeling. That post was not intended to make any pronouncements on the upcoming storm, except to say the Euro is agreeing with itself. Just information, for you in your next water cooler chat.
Now…what’s new with tonight’s models. The NAM shows the Triangle as an ice rink. (I think it’s too far west with the low.) The GFS gives a decent several inches with some sleet on top. The Euro won’t be in until another hour or so. But there is also support building in the shorter term US ensembles, the so called SREF. The 21Z runs are trending totals of the ensemble means up quite impressively…10-12″ in Charlotte and 7-8″ in Raleigh. Again, this is certainly not a forecast. Just some interesting jockeying going on ahead of the main event.
Final word for tonight. This will be a major disruptive event for NC. Best 1st guess for Raleigh is a couple inches of snow followed by a layer of sleet followed by a glaze of the dreaded freezing rain. Timing is questionable, but probably Wed AM to begin in the Triangle. Areas near the SC border begin Tues.
Tomorrow you might begin thinking of changing your plans for Wed and Thus. I’ll have a full outline and a guess map tomorrow, early afternoon.
1:36 PM, February 10, 2014aj /
Okay, friend. It’s early afternoon. No pressure.
1:50 PM, February 10, 2014Suzanne /
Gas, cash, junk food-triple check
Wine-check
Hit me baby!