There’s not a lot to add to what I posted last night. The same general thinking applies although, there may be a tendency to shift landfall farther north.
Today, the rapid intensification expected to take place has occurred. Currently, an eye wall replacement cycle is underway. It is likely that once this is complete, we will have a Cat-5 Florence heading for NC.
Tomorrow, we can narrow the track cone a bit. Tonight, things look farther north. Tomorrow they may look farther south. But by Wed AM we should be confident in a detailed track. And as a reminder, that track will dictate the extent of the worst inland wind damage, which will be something like 25 miles west and 50 miles east of center of circulation. But as bad as all the winds may be, the real widespread threat should rain and tens of inches of it.
More tomorrow…
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