I thought about this late last night… how will the weakening surface low, heading east over the Gulf coast affect cyclogenesis off our coast? what happens if a ton of big t-storms (MCS) fire in the Gulf (see pretty colors on the satellite pic above)? Will that rob the moisture transport to fuel heavy precip as our storm develops? If so, how much would that reduce the geographical size and magnitude of the precip field?
…because, in Raleigh we’re depending on the storm to develop bigly in order to throw significant moisture=snow this far west.
Hot off the presses… all of this evening’s model guidance is coming in with a downward trend in QPF (liquid equivalent). At this point, we need to think about busting lower than higher. Maybe shave the 2-3″ back 1-2″ for Raleigh and hope to be in a band?
It looks like a nowcasting situation for tomorrow as we monitor the development of the low and radar trends.
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