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The 18Z NAM, hot off the presses, has come in trending bullish for tonight’s event. It basically adds an additional .1 to .15″ of QPF (liquid equivalent) across our area on the western periphery of the precipitation shield compared to previous runs (and with even higher totals down east.) So, it seems the westward trend continues. And while it is difficult to know if this is just a bobble that will settle back with the next run, it is worth noting that upstream snow totals along the Gulf Coast, as well as the northern extent of the precipitation axis have both generally overachieved.

I’ll continue to monitor the latest to see if this translates into that bust potential to the high end. Remember also that this will be will be a dry snow with snow to liquid equivalent ratios running higher than the 10:1 rule-of-thumb. That fact could also help fluff up totals. We’ll see if we have to bump up these numbers later this evening.

Snow should begin in Wake Co. in the 6-7pm timeframe this evening. Snow will begin lightly and increase to steady thru the evening. Snow should end by midnight or 1am tonight.

There is no real change to the thinking. This event will favor highest totals in the coastal plain with waning totals as you head westward. There will probably be a large swath of flurries to a dusting throughout NC. The line for measurable snow will run along a SW to NE axis from Charlotte to Chapel Hill to South Hill, VA. In Raleigh, I’m expecting 1 to 2″ …again with that west to east gradient. So even across Wake Co., you’re more likely to get 1″ at RDU and 2+” in Wendell.

For Raleigh, my forecast is just under 2″. Bust potential to the low side is .5″. Bust potential to the high side is 3″. Regardless of the total, it is very cold and will remain so. Lows will be in the teens tonight after the snow departs. Tomorrow we won’t get above freezing. The sun will help with melting, but again with the air temperature still below freezing and going down to the low to mid teens by Thursday AM, there will still be travel headaches, especially on the secondary roads.

Obviously, this is not the big one for Raleigh, but head down East if you’d like to experience a fairly wide swath of 3-5″ snows with lucky winners that may achieve over 6″. As you get closer to the coast, sleet mixing in will reduce those totals.

Enjoy whatever you get. After this round, we should get a reprieve from the cold with temperatures rebounding to seasonal norms by the weekend.

Last time we left off with… “It will be feast or famine snow <for Wake Co>”

Maybe though, even as the 100 miles didn’t seem to go in our favor in the past 36 hours’ model runs, tonight, we may be converging on a solution that will at least serve appetizers!

At this point, (emphasizing higher totals from east to west) a middle-of-the-road guess for Raleigh is probably 1/3 to an 1 inch. Important to note is that all models are now trending westward with the moisture field. Tonight’s 0Z models depict a significant bump westward. We’ll see if the trend continues or if that progress stalls. Just to tease, but still on the table is 3+” if, if and if.

I’ll update tomorrow after the 12Z model suite comes in.

Let’s go Snow(Pack)!

Several days ago we knew it was going to be cold and thought there might be a Deep South snowstorm.

Tonight we know it’s going to be cold and we know there’s going to be a Deep South snowstorm.

Now, there’s JUST ONE THING we need to know. The question that remains is what the track of the storm will be. Obviously, the track determines the moisture axis and where the wintry precip falls. We’ve seen fewer Miller-A setups in recent years, and this time around, the high pressure will be quite strong in pushing a very cold airmass quite far south. Just how strong it ends up being will help determine how suppressed the storm track will be. And when we’re talking about snow to the entire Gulf coastline… that’s suppressed.

I expect the ensembles to converge on a consensus track tomorrow… (even as the last couple runs of the GFS want to go for two smaller storms rather than one). So until then, we’re really just pretending if we say we know the track more than within a couple hundred miles. And a couple hundred miles variance for Wake Co. will be the difference between a dusting and 10+” of snow.

To sum it up for now… ‘warm’ rain tomorrow, maybe a lucky snow shower later, north… probably not. Cold air rushes in tomorrow night and highs on MLK Day sill struggle to reach 30°. Moisture enters the area Tuesday evening and depending the storm track, it will be feast or famine snow!

Ok, maybe I’ve actually been excited… for a couple of days.

But I’ve been skeptical and still am cautiously optimistic that another chance for a significant storm will remain in play.

There have been some spectacular runs from the deterministic models over the past couple days (and many bone-dry, tear-jerkers and many cold rains). Now, though, ensemble support is building from the entire suite of global models for winter weather fun in the Carolinas.

I’ll make this update short and sweet… we’re a week or so out, looking at next late Tues/Wed/Thurs. There’s no need to hypothesize any details at this point, as most every cold scenario has potential… Some huge. Some wide-right (= cold and dry). Some wide-left (= cold rain).

In the meantime, we’ll see a bit of a roller coaster with a quite cold today, before warming “all the way up” to the low 50s (which is normal, but will feel semi-tropical in comparison to the extend cold) over the weekend along with rain ahead of the transition to the really cold air first of next week. And there may even be a chance for the elusive cold-air chasing the moisture, such that we get a couple of snow showers Monday.

Enjoy the ride. Hopefully, we enjoy the destination!

And again… ‘I will NOT be excited for snow!’

To quote my last post on Jan 3rd… “late Friday/Saturday (Jan 10/11). Things look intriguing.”

The good news for winter weather lovers is that things continue to look intriguing. And while this setup will go down as a wasted opportunity for a major storm, NC still looks to be squarely in focus for a widespread winter weather event with significant impacts across the state.

With just about 36 hours before the precip begins in the Triangle, there are a number of nagging disagreements in the modeling. Here’s where we have confidence…

Precip with spread over NC from SW to NE during the day Friday, such that we should see snow begin in the Triangle in the 4-6pm range. There could be a couple of flurries or light showers ahead of this, but the real action in Raleigh should get started as the sun sets. Precipitation will continue thru the evening and overnight. Wake County looks to be near where a transition zone will setup, mixing the snow with sleet and including some freezing rain which will produce minor glazing.

The troubling part for me is the behavior of the NAM (American short term model). It has very little snow for us, a lot of sleet and even more freezing rain. And while the NAM is supposed to be better with smaller scale vertical temperature nuances, I feel like it’s way over doing it with this warm tongue intrusion just below 850mb. It’s important to respect this possibility, and I’d like to see more corroboration from the other models as we get closer.

For now, I’d say that Raleigh gets 2″ of snow plus a layer of sleet (which will pack down the snow) followed by a thin glaze of freezing rain. All that should look like 2-3″ of a potpourri of p-types on the ground by the time we’re done.

It will be colder with more snow to the north and west, and more sleet and freezing rain to the south and east. Model trends have been toward more moisture across the NC/SC. We’ll see if that trend continues and we eek out a little more white stuff, in general.

Travel conditions should go downhill tomorrow evening and then even after the precip ends early Saturday morning, it will take a while for travel conditions to improve. There will probably be a window where things thaw out on Saturday after lunch, but as soon as the sun goes down, temps will drop and a hard freeze will take us down close to 20° overnight. Lots of widespread black ice are expected on Sunday AM.

Here comes the cold, as advertised.

Central NC looks to miss out on the winter-side of this weekend’s major winter storm, which will be a high-impact from Kansas to NJ with a swath of foot+ totals. While we may see some freezing rain and sleet near the onset of our precipitation later Sunday, that will change over to cold rain before any real travel concerns arise.

For NC, it’s common to expect the first storm, immediately behind the arctic front, to track so that we just miss out. In extended cold periods, we look down the road for the ‘next’ one (or maybe that’s just the Wolfpack fan in me… always looking for the next one). In this case, we’re talking about next late Friday/Saturday (Jan 10/11). Things look intriguing. Maybe, just maybe.