Weathertrex.com

To rehash… we’ve gone from expecting a nicely phased, moisture laden system with widespread winter weather to now expecting weakening upper level energy coinciding with the development of a surface low offshore to produce our winter mess. So think of it a two mechanisms that aren’t phased or synergized to realize their potential. Now it looks like the weakening upper level energy and weakening surface low traversing to the east across the Gulf will only be good to produce generally light precipitation for NC. The real potential for significant snow will come from the development of the surface low off the Carolinas’ coast… how far west will dictate how far west the axis of heaviest moisture will punch. In the foothills and western Piedmont, there will be a dry slot that misses most everything, save some flurries and light snow.

The good news is that there will be significant snowfall totals over eastern NC and VA. The trick is nailing down where that axis will be. Much of that intense precipitation will be driven by banding from frontogenesis in a complicated dance between the northward push of the warm air intrusion. It’s a blessing and curse. The warm tongue intrusion enhances the frontogenesis, which drives higher precip rates just to the north, while just to the south the warm air melts the snow aloft and you’re left with a lot of sleet and even farther south, freezing rain. So at this point, we’re rooting for the low to ramp up hard, fast and as far west as it can.

The completely frustrating thing about the evolution over the next day will be the amazing gradients of feast to famine over relatively short distances. It will be typical to see 6-7″ in one place and 1-2″ over a span of just 20-40 miles.

Latest models continue to trend downward with total precipitation farther west. We’ll see how things evolve overnight. For now, best guess for Raleigh would be 2-3″ of mostly snow with some sleet mixed in. If we can get the moisture axis farther west, we could see more. Again, what seems a lock is that areas from Raleigh north and east toward the Tidewater of SE VA will be the winners with 6-12″.

Look for the precip to breakout before lunch. Bust potential low for Raleigh is dusting to 1″; bust potential high would be 5-6″. Then on Thursday midday, there will be another round of snow showers that comes through adding just a dusting.

Here’s hoping I get to use that Eagle Brand milk for snow cream!