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Geez, that was painful! The dome has been retracted, so let the snow begin in earnest.

Now that the snow in Wake County has begun, you’ll see it increase in intensity, especially from east to west by 8pm. Snow rates will be heavy at times, and the wind will whip it around easily since this is pure powder. We should see steady snow (sometimes moderate to heavy) over the next several hours through 1–2 am.

We’ll see how well we do on the comeback, but it shouldn’t be too difficult to end up with a general swath of 4″, perhaps even more depending on how the banding sets up.

Next Thursday remains a possibility for wintry weather and is still a question mark. It’s something to watch. More broadly, the pattern stays cold for the next couple of weeks, with signals pointing to a larger-scale storm around the Valentine’s Day timeframe.

Enjoy tonight’s snow… finally!

I’d be lying if I didn’t say that I just don’t know. There are some real questions.

What I can say is that most areas will delight in feast. And… there might be some famine. It’s scary that 12 hours before the height of an event there are such dispirit solutions offered from the numerical modeling. We’re down to observation of the evolving trends to nowcast tomorrow when all the key players show up to dance.

Remember Lucy… she just might pull the football out from someone. Hopefully, not me!

For Raleigh, let’s say 6-8″.

As the mesoscale details of the storm come into focus, we’re starting to see how holes could show up in the snowfall maps if coverage from the upper-level low–driven snow fails to connect with the snow generated directly from coastal cyclogenesis. There’s little doubt that banding will ultimately determine the feast-or-famine locations. Even if some snow holes materialize, those “famine” spots would still likely see 2 to 3 inches, which by NC standards is a solid winter event.

Let’s stick with the same thinking from last night, with a lean toward the lower end of the range. And we’ll hope the snow dome stays out of the picture.

A few flurries are possible earlier tomorrow evening, but the steadier snow should begin just after midnight and increase through the day as temps fall into the teens and the wind ramps up. If we end up under one of the favored bands, the snow could be heavy.

Let’s get this one nailed down before we start talking about the next potential system for Thurs/Fri.

… because I’m a little scared of Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown at the last second.

There are certainly ways this could still fly off the rails, but the preponderance of the evidence says this is shaping up to be a storm we’ll remember for a while. Steady guidance that lands midday tomorrow should have me more assured.

Quick thoughts…

All of the precipitation should fall as snow. Snow-to-liquid ratios will be high because of that very cold air in place, which makes it easier to pile up big totals.

There should be a broad swath of moderate snow across the region. The jackpot totals will come down to where deformation banding sets up. Depending on how amped the storm becomes and how the circulation wraps and pivots, there could be spots, especially down east, where a band parks over one location for hours. That’s the kind of setup that produces historic numbers, similar to the Jan 2000 storm when RDU picked up 20.3 inches.

So, best guess for Raleigh?
8 to 14 inches.

Bust low?
2 inches.

Bust high?
22 inches.

Confidence is increasing for snow this weekend in NC, especially across central and eastern parts of the state.

The pattern is set up with a strong area of high pressure delivering very cold air deep into the South. An evolving upper level low will dive south and intensify. As that upper low crosses NC, it is likely to force an outbreak of light snow showers. Things get more interesting with the potential for multiple waves to align and spawn a coastal storm.

At this point, all three of these ingredients appear to have their boxes checked. The uncertainty lies in where the energy ultimately phases, which will determine how close to the coast the surface low forms and how it tracks to the north and east. As I mentioned last night, a shift of 50 to 75 miles west or east will make all the difference in snow totals. That range goes from a dusting driven mainly by the upper level low while the surface low is just a fish storm… to 3 to 4 inches with a storm a bit closer to the coast… to 1 foot or more if the coastal low is just right and you end up under a deformation band of enhanced precipitation.

Anyone who tells you they know how this will play out is flat out lying. The truth is that all of these outcomes are still on the table just over three days out. Right now, indications are that the latter two scenarios are favored. We could dive into which model says what, and how small shifts in positioning from run to run wildly change snowfall projections. And while it is fun to gasp at 30″ snowfall prints 😳, that is really all it is… fun to dream about, What If?

So, there’s no value in riding the ‘next-run-roller-coaster’ even if the thrills are high. Tomorrow evening’s 0Z model cycle should start to provide more confidence in how this evolves. And even the night before the storm, I can 100 percent guarantee I will be whining about how hard it is to pin down exactly where the coastal low forms. 🙂

For now, the takeaway is that there is a significant chance the Triangle sees accumulating snow this weekend. We should be thinking through contingency plans for Saturday and Sunday. Because… What if?

Yep. Looking into the crystal ball… more winter weather for the weekend. This time, there’s a better chance it will be snow or nothing at all. It’s not an ice setup. The track of the storm (50 miles either way) will make the difference between flurries, 2″, or a foot. All of that really comes into focus with the Wednesday evening model runs. For now, all you need to know is that a storm is likely. The track will determine the magnitude of the snow.

We’ve been lucky that the surface layer of cold air held strong enough overnight to limit freezing rain accruals in favor of sleet and snow. The inch or so of sleet/snow has provided a great base for sledding that will take quite some time to melt.

And while we’ve only seen a light glaze in Wake County so far, any meaningful freezing rain that we have left should begin now. This band looks to be the heaviest precipitation we’ve seen so far. The expectation is for it to be freezing rain and sleet, with the potential for a pocket or two of heavy sleet at times. In fact, we could luck out and end up with mostly sleet.

Temps are still holding in the low 20s, so the potential for another >1/4″ of ice is now trending down. Especially with heavier precipitation rates, the rain won’t have as much of a chance to freeze on trees and power lines as efficiently as it would with lighter rates over a longer timeframe. To be clear, any rain will still freeze wherever it ends up on the ground, but that’s a much better scenario than it freezing on elevated surfaces that could collapse under the weight of the ice.

For now, there’s still hope that this cold surface layer continues to overperform and that this last round ends up being mostly sleet, to the tune of 1/2″+.

As advertised, it’s going to be very cold this week. Melting will be a slow go, with some thawing in the sun and refreezing each morning. Black ice will be a headache during the early hours. And we still have the potential for a couple of snow showers later in the week. There are also hints of other storm systems rolling through from the weekend into the following week, but at this point it’s just musings.

Stay safe, enjoy a winter vacation day or two and enjoy another round!

A light layer of sleet covers Raleigh at this hour. There will be a lull in the precipitation for a bit as the areal coverage increases overnight. The question becomes… how much more sleet can we sneak in before it turns to all freezing rain?

Trends this evening indicate that the freezing rain will win out sooner than hoped. Unfortunately, this means that a majority of the remaining precipitation will fall in the form of freezing rain. The good news is that short-term modeling also suggests lower QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) than we had earlier feared.

Net, net… Raleigh looks to be in line for 1/2–3/4″ of sleet/snow and 0.5–0.7″ of ice accrual. Numerous downed trees and power lines will make power outages widespread.