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Ok, maybe I’ve actually been excited… for a couple of days.

But I’ve been skeptical and still am cautiously optimistic that another chance for a significant storm will remain in play.

There have been some spectacular runs from the deterministic models over the past couple days (and many bone-dry, tear-jerkers and many cold rains). Now, though, ensemble support is building from the entire suite of global models for winter weather fun in the Carolinas.

I’ll make this update short and sweet… we’re a week or so out, looking at next late Tues/Wed/Thurs. There’s no need to hypothesize any details at this point, as most every cold scenario has potential… Some huge. Some wide-right (= cold and dry). Some wide-left (= cold rain).

In the meantime, we’ll see a bit of a roller coaster with a quite cold today, before warming “all the way up” to the low 50s (which is normal, but will feel semi-tropical in comparison to the extend cold) over the weekend along with rain ahead of the transition to the really cold air first of next week. And there may even be a chance for the elusive cold-air chasing the moisture, such that we get a couple of snow showers Monday.

Enjoy the ride. Hopefully, we enjoy the destination!

And again… ‘I will NOT be excited for snow!’

To quote my last post on Jan 3rd… “late Friday/Saturday (Jan 10/11). Things look intriguing.”

The good news for winter weather lovers is that things continue to look intriguing. And while this setup will go down as a wasted opportunity for a major storm, NC still looks to be squarely in focus for a widespread winter weather event with significant impacts across the state.

With just about 36 hours before the precip begins in the Triangle, there are a number of nagging disagreements in the modeling. Here’s where we have confidence…

Precip with spread over NC from SW to NE during the day Friday, such that we should see snow begin in the Triangle in the 4-6pm range. There could be a couple of flurries or light showers ahead of this, but the real action in Raleigh should get started as the sun sets. Precipitation will continue thru the evening and overnight. Wake County looks to be near where a transition zone will setup, mixing the snow with sleet and including some freezing rain which will produce minor glazing.

The troubling part for me is the behavior of the NAM (American short term model). It has very little snow for us, a lot of sleet and even more freezing rain. And while the NAM is supposed to be better with smaller scale vertical temperature nuances, I feel like it’s way over doing it with this warm tongue intrusion just below 850mb. It’s important to respect this possibility, and I’d like to see more corroboration from the other models as we get closer.

For now, I’d say that Raleigh gets 2″ of snow plus a layer of sleet (which will pack down the snow) followed by a thin glaze of freezing rain. All that should look like 2-3″ of a potpourri of p-types on the ground by the time we’re done.

It will be colder with more snow to the north and west, and more sleet and freezing rain to the south and east. Model trends have been toward more moisture across the NC/SC. We’ll see if that trend continues and we eek out a little more white stuff, in general.

Travel conditions should go downhill tomorrow evening and then even after the precip ends early Saturday morning, it will take a while for travel conditions to improve. There will probably be a window where things thaw out on Saturday after lunch, but as soon as the sun goes down, temps will drop and a hard freeze will take us down close to 20° overnight. Lots of widespread black ice are expected on Sunday AM.

Here comes the cold, as advertised.

Central NC looks to miss out on the winter-side of this weekend’s major winter storm, which will be a high-impact from Kansas to NJ with a swath of foot+ totals. While we may see some freezing rain and sleet near the onset of our precipitation later Sunday, that will change over to cold rain before any real travel concerns arise.

For NC, it’s common to expect the first storm, immediately behind the arctic front, to track so that we just miss out. In extended cold periods, we look down the road for the ‘next’ one (or maybe that’s just the Wolfpack fan in me… always looking for the next one). In this case, we’re talking about next late Friday/Saturday (Jan 10/11). Things look intriguing. Maybe, just maybe.

Obviously, not a White Christmas, but maybe an honest to goodness snow… just like the ones I used to know.

The long-range indications we saw back in early December for a significant cold shot in January appear to be on point. Model runs continue to vary from run-to-run with solutions ranging from apocalyptic to general, widespread cold. The trend is undeniable, with much ensemble support for a decidedly cold period east of the Rockies after the first week of January.

In terms of cold and snow potential, the Euro ensembles (remember, the Euro ensembles are comprised of 50 individual members) look about as promising as they can be for 10-15 days out. Of course, there’s still plenty of time for Lucy to jerk the football away from Charlie Brown, so temper your excitement for now, and hold off stocking up on snow cream ingredients.

More immediately, the severe weather threat currently ongoing in the Deep South should arrive in the Carolinas tomorrow (Sunday). Enjoy the 60s and 70s now before they are gone by midweek. Stay alert tomorrow for potentially strong storms and gusty winds.

Hopefully, I’ll have reason next week to discuss specifics on potentially wintry scenarios for the following week.

Happy 2024!

Hi Friends. I’m getting soooooo much… “Why don’t you post to WeatherTrex anymore?” My reply is always, “When there is something to post about, I will.”

So, I’m posting now, maybe a bit in response to that… and maybe a little wish-casting?

I’ve told many that our January cold was fun and refreshing in comparison to our recent mild winters. At least we got some decent cold, even if that cold was wasted without a moisture coincidence.

I come with potentially good news! A pattern shift has been telegraphed from our current January-thaw to a favorable situation for Mid-Atlantic winter weather chances after the first week of February. And now, ensembles are starting to eye the Feb 5-6th timeframe for a potential winter weather event for NC.

No more hype for now than to say, this looks to be a credible opportunity.

I hope the threat increases and we get to discuss more!

The situation is coming into better focus to suggest that the entire state will see a dusting to 1.5″ of wet snow. Additionally, separate mechanisms will be at play to provide the potential for more in certain areas:

1) in the northeastern part of the state where the surface low begins to bomb out and throw back moisture as it rips up the Eastern Seaboard there could be another couple to several inches on top.

2) as the upper-level low swings thru in the wee hours of Friday night, there will be short-lived bands of moderate to potential heavy snow across central NC (akin to that of summer garden-variety thundershowers). In these favored areas, there could be another inch or two, and you could even see a flash of lightening and hear a clap of thunder. This is favored generally west of the Triangle, but not out of the question for Raleigh.

To sum it up… look for light accumulations of snow after midnight tomorrow. Expect ±1″. Be thrilled with anything more!

If you really want a blizzard, book your flight to Providence, RI for 2+ ft!

Nearly 30 years ago, we all laughed at Jeff Goldblum’s (Ian Malcolm) seductive example of chaos theory to entice Laura Dern (Dr. Sattler). There’s actually some truth to this come-on act.

For the past couple runs, all the numerical guidance has been whipping back and forth. Sometimes the solutions converge more readily than others. In this situation, there are several nuances that will ultimately determine if Boston gets 24″ or 2″… similarly, for NC (not 24 vs 2, but several vs. flurries)

There is no need to try to make any updated projections at this point. Hopefully, things will calm down in tomorrow’s runs as the upper-level wave becomes fully sampled into the model initializations.

Sorry for no real answers at this point. The short guess at this point is a general swath of 1/2″— lucky 2″ across the entire state. Beyond that, there is definitely the potential for more, especially in the NE part of the NC.

Since the last flakes fell last weekend, I’ve been incredibly good to resist the temptation to hype the potential for a third in-a-row weekend winter storm. There has existed decent potential for a major East Coast storm all week, however, the locales of emphasis have been centered from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. This is all still the case. However, over the past day or so, the numerical guidance suggests the storm could get it’s act together farther south, and with a track sufficiently close to the coast to provide snow to eastern NC before dumping impressive snows farther north.

The set up for storms like this always rely on the phasing of waves in the northern and southern jet streams. It’s tricky… is the southern behind the northern, both lining up in phase, or does the southern branch run ahead? Three days out, we’re left to try to analyze how well the models initialized from the observations (i.e. garbage in = garbage out), and make a reasonable case as to why one model solution is preferred over another.

Bottom line for tonight is that the trends in the last several cycles favor solutions that give, especially eastern NC, good chances for accumulating snow. This far out, there’s no reason to be exciting for more than an inch or two with areas toward Elizabeth City and Norfolk that have the greatest potential for significantly more accumulation.

So, that’s where we should be leveling our heads tonight. However, with the amount of potential energy on the table with this storm, you cannot discount the outlier solution (for now) that would give eastern NC an even more impressive snowfall than we saw last weekend. At the same time, hold in balance that the eastern outlier solution could play out with just a cold rain most all.

Let’s see how things evolve and the next couple days and hope for that NC Hat Trick!

Quick update to confirm with all the curious snow lovers begging me for the latest… the storm is playing out according to plan.

Light snow has laid down about 1/3″ here at the world HQ of WeatherTrex.com. Snow is now moderate here in Raleigh, ITB. We should expect snow rates to ramp up over the next hour, such that after 9pm we should be accumulating at a moderate pace.

The wheelhouse for moderate to occasionally heavy snow in Wake county looks to be from 9pm to midnight/1am. Around midnight/1am, expect snow to tapper back down and all the fun is done around 3am.

I have no reason to change my thinking of 3-4″ in Raleigh. Look for totals that could scale up to 5-7″ as you head east to JoCo and over to Wilson where it’s all snow too.

Be mindful of lots of black ice for the next couple of mornings. Limit morning travel as much as possible.

Enjoy the snow!

When I said last night, let’s wait and see if those short term American models swing back… Well, they have.

Since we’ve been inside the short-term modeling window, the RGEM (Canada’s mesoscale model) has been steady and consistent in depicting a general warm advection-driven overrunning event that is more widespread in coverage with lower spike totals.

I could go back and forth with the details of the model vacillations, but I’ll spare you the ennui and cut to the chase for a couple of points of emphasis:

1. All the rain that fell today is in the process of freezing in place. This puts a layer of ice in place as the arctic airmass continues to move into NC.
2. The graupel/sleet/snow that is falling tonight won’t be a lot to see, but will add a small layer of frozen ‘stuff’ to contend with.
3. There will be a lull during the day tomorrow, even as temperatures struggle to reach freezing. The real round of snow looks to reach Wake Co. in the 5-7pm range with earlier times as you go east.
4. The models have come back home to solutions that still favor an axis of heaviest snows similar to last night’s post. The change may be to lower northeast NC accumulations down from the 10″ range to more like 8″ tops. Again, the thinking shifts now to a more general swath of light to moderate snow for wider areal coverage of eastern NC (with significant sleet and freezing rain as you go towards southeast NC… ice storm potential).
5. Everybody wants a total for their backyard. The best guess for Wake Co. at this point is 3-4″
6. Saturday clears up, but it will be cold; perhaps only getting above freezing for an hour or so. There will be some melting; not a lot. The most efficient melting will be in areas that receive sun, of course. After sundown, things get treacherous quickly, and will stay that way until we go above freezing around noon on Sunday.

This is a tough one to nail down. In the meantime, enjoy the waffling with some great maple syrup!

Updates tomorrow.