What I’m about to say is why, as amazing as the advances in weather prediction have been, you can’t really know with confidence what’s going to happen with a winter storm until you’re staring it in the eyes. Even now, those eyes are beady and shifty. You can’t trust them!
The evolution of the thinking on the storm has covered a lot of ground over the past week. I was very concerned for a crippling ice storm for NC, with a blockbuster Nor’Easter for the I-95 corridor. Then, run by run, we’ve advanced the cold air farther south and consequently the storm track. What looked to be a nicely phased, moisture heavy storm rounding the bend at the Carolinas’ coast for a date with the Northeast, now looks to be a slider that doesn’t really phase and pushes out to sea.
What does this mean for NC? It means that a majority of the precip that falls in Raleigh will be in the form of snow and sleet. And it means that there probably won’t be as much precip as feared. It also appears that northeast NC and southeast VA could hit the jackpot for most impressive snow totals.
Remember when the trend was our friend? We’re at the point now when the trend needs to stop trending and do a little snap back. Because if we keep on the trend, the slider is going to keep slip sliding away. Now that we’re in the short term modeling window, hopefully there will be more clarity as we build consensus on this solution which produces widespread light to moderate snow over the northern half of NC, a transition zone to sleet and freezing rain just south of there, and the snow sweet spot in northeastern NC with totals approaching 10″. This is the best guess for now, but there is plenty of window left for a scenario that has the low strength closer to the coast, which would throw the heavier snow bands farther west to Raleigh. All in all, it’s not really bad news. It’s just the difference between a colossal burger and a slider.
Models still insist on precip breaking out in the Triangle late morning on Wednesday. I still wonder if daybreak might be a better estimate. We shall see. I know it seems obvious to say, but we should have more confidence in all aspects of the storm by early tomorrow afternoon. At that point, the storm will be taking shape over the Central Plains and maybe those beady eyes won’t be so shifty!
8:19 AM, February 18, 2025Shelia /
Thank you.