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The main rain shield from Michael is just arriving in Raleigh.  The heaviest axis of rain looks to setup west of the Triangle where several inches are likely while totals near Raleigh are likely to be more on the order of 2″.

Our main threat appears to be from a period gusty winds in the 5:30-7:30pm timeframe after most of the rain has passed.  On the back side of the circulation will be a burst of winds that could catch everyone off guard, thinking the storm has passed.  The higher resolution models indicate that higher momentum air above the surface should get mixed down to near the surface making for a short period of of straight-line winds similar to a derecho event.  10m winds are indicated in the 60-80mph range.  If this pans out, we can expect lots of trees down following the soaking rains, plus associated power outages.

Again, this looks to move from west to east thru the Triangle just after commute time.  Stay alert.

Michael is gaining strength offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.  If not for stiff westerly wind sheer, Michael would have the potential to strengthen rapidly.  As it appears now, Michael should have to deal with significant wind shear throughout its evolution.  Hopefully, that will limit its intensity.  There is uncertainty to the extent of that influence.  So, while I would expect Michael to be a borderline 2/3 storm at landfall…it’s certainty possible for it only to be a minimal hurricane or, as some outlier models suggest, a cat 4.  I’ll remind you that track forecast has much higher skill than intensity forecasts.

So what does it matter for NC?

Landfall should be along the Florida panhandle.  Then, the track is likely to be just inland from the coast all the way up through SC and NC before exiting the Outer Banks.  Again, the exact location of the center of Michael isn’t so important except that a cat 3 moving inland fast (even as far south as Florida) will dictate where the gustiest of winds will be.

And speaking of fast-moving… it looks like this may be a saving grace with Michael.  Still, we’ll expect gusty, perhaps damaging, winds in eastern NC along with 3-5″ of unwelcome rain.

Lots of time to figure it all out before impacts in the Thursday timeframe.  Of course, there’s still some discrepancy in the thinking on that as well.  Stay tuned.