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Ok, Arthur may have altered the lyrics today for landfall tonight. 😉  (I should clarify that I don’t think it will be as far west as Camp Lejeune, but it made the rhyme work for the song)

The latest 18Z models definitely shift the entire guidance envelope to the west…making a track inside of HAT seem like the likely scenario now.  And the 12Z Euro agrees.  Again this is important because where the eye passes and to the east will be the worst of the storm.  This track puts most of the OBX on the ‘wrong’ side of the path and increases the chances for more damage.  It also puts the popular NC beaches…Emerald Isle, Salter Path and Atlantic at higher risk for a direct hit.

There are lots of emergency preparations going on at the coast now.  In Hyde Co. they mean business…alcohol sales have been suspended!  I bet there’s a black market formed already!

But seriously, the satellite presentation has improved this afternoon with ragged eye emerging.

We can expect a little more strengthening before landfall later tonight.  Latest pressure is 977mb.  I am comfortable with my call last night…landfall close to Beaufort with max sustained winds of 100-105 mph east of the center.  Remember the good part of this storm is how quickly it will be out of here.  Stay safe if you’re at the beach!

Ok, who gets the title reference?  If you don’t, go look it up…

I’ve tried to avoid posting on Arthur for the last couple days as it looked like he would head over or east of HAT.  Now that Arthur has actually formed and has a definable track northward, things are looking a little more interesting for the possibility of a landfall west and south of the OBX.

Geography reminder…NC juts out quite a bit east from the southeastern coast.  So it’s with good reason that we have a hockey team called the Hurricanes!  The geography makes NC climatologically favored to landfall hurricanes.  The question tonight really is…does the eye pass over HAT or is it farther west.  And when we talk about the center coming farther west, a small westward shift implies huge differences in impacts (again, geography).

Keep in mind that the most pronounced impact will be felt on the northeast side of the eye.  So…a 50 mile westward shift is the difference between landfalling at HAT with just water and fish to the east (bad for them, but good for everyone else) and landfalling at Beaufort with all of the OBX to the east to get the worst.  A 75 mile westward shift puts Arthur landfalling at Emerald Isle.  And a 125 mile westward shift landfalls Arthur in Wilmington.

This evening’s model runs have shifted a bit westward, but it’s imprudent to completely bite on that yet, especially without yet having seen the Euro, which has been on top of this for the past week.

Final word… The trend is for a larger portion of the coast to be affected than previously thought.  This will be a significant storm, but not a major storm for those along and east of the eye.  Best guess at this point would be for a landfall just east of Beaufort (near Cape Lookout) early Friday morning with max winds at 100mph…solid Cat 2.  The good news is that regardless of landfall and intensity…it will be short-lived as the storm will be accelerated to the northeast ahead of a cold front that will usher in springlike weather for the holiday weekend for much of NC.