Several days ago we knew it was going to be cold and thought there might be a Deep South snowstorm.
Tonight we know it’s going to be cold and we know there’s going to be a Deep South snowstorm.
Now, there’s JUST ONE THING we need to know. The question that remains is what the track of the storm will be. Obviously, the track determines the moisture axis and where the wintry precip falls. We’ve seen fewer Miller-A setups in recent years, and this time around, the high pressure will be quite strong in pushing a very cold airmass quite far south. Just how strong it ends up being will help determine how suppressed the storm track will be. And when we’re talking about snow to the entire Gulf coastline… that’s suppressed.
I expect the ensembles to converge on a consensus track tomorrow… (even as the last couple runs of the GFS want to go for two smaller storms rather than one). So until then, we’re really just pretending if we say we know the track more than within a couple hundred miles. And a couple hundred miles variance for Wake Co. will be the difference between a dusting and 10+” of snow.
To sum it up for now… ‘warm’ rain tomorrow, maybe a lucky snow shower later, north… probably not. Cold air rushes in tomorrow night and highs on MLK Day sill struggle to reach 30°. Moisture enters the area Tuesday evening and depending the storm track, it will be feast or famine snow!
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