Weathertrex.com

We have some good news and some bad news.

The good news… In the battle of mercy armwrestling that’s been going on between the American (GFS) and the European models, the GFS has thrown in the towel and conceded the European’s track guidance of Florence approaching Cape Fear for landfall(?)

The bad news… This is the reason for the above question mark and where the left hook comes in.  The latest operational European run, hot off the presses, depicts the same track, that it has been remarkably consistent with, from the past couple days.  However, this run is a little slower in forward speed.  Consequently, Florence never quite makes it ashore before it loses steering currents.  Then it drifts southwestward paralleling the coast to SC.  So the track plot literally looks like a hard left turn as Florence gets to NC.  This would be horrible, because the hurricane would still have an energy source over water to fuel a prolonged period of winds and torrential rains that would be devastating along the coast.

So, while we’re more confident of the direction it’s coming with a track into the Cape Fear area, the next and probably really difficult thing to discern is what happens when the steering currents are gone and just when does that happen.  The above scenario outlined by today’s Euro is just one possibility that we need to consider over the next two days before Florence arrives.

It’s important not to get fixed on an exact solution yet.  We know that this is going to be a devastating situation for some in the NC/SC/VA, and a widespread bad situation for many.  Everyone in central and eastern NC and upstate SC should stay alert and prepared for the possibility that you could be one of the ones devastated by life-threatening conditions, as opposed to inconvenienced by a bad situation.

I’m still hoping to have more firm ideas on the track by this time tomorrow.