The average annual snowfall for RDU is about 7″. We’ve obviously had no snow so far. The days of snow drought have strung together, and last week I began to hear the bemoaning “It’s not gonna snow this year. Is it?” The answer to that is…no. In fact, the next 10 or so days could be the nastiest, most winter-like of the year.
We had the teaser shot of cold air arrive yesterday. But later tonight, you’ll know the cold means business as the wind picks up even more with gust approaching 50 mph as temps plummet into the teens. This will set the stage for Sunday when temps won’t climb out of the 20s despite abundant sun.
Then things get tricky to figure out.
The early/mid week system has been well advertised as complicated with lower than normal forecast confidence. What makes it complicated is a 1-2 punch scenario with weak surface low riding out of the lower Miss Valley that ends up being usurped as it reaches the GA/SC coast by a developing coastal storm.
Lightest precip scenario…The southern storm tracks well to our south with a light inch or two of snow for us on it’s northern periphery. Then the coastal storm form far enough offshore and with a sufficiently northeasterly track to limit further precip.
Heaviest precip scenario…The southern storm again tracks well to our south with that initial light inch or two or perhaps three of snow. As it transfers energy to the developing coastal storm, precip blossoms across the eastern 2/3 of NC as this new storm center takes over and hugs the coast. However, this solution would pull in warmer air above the surface for much of the eastern 1/3 of NC and there would be a broad transition of snow west to sleet to freezing rain to rain at the coast. Accumulations of ice and snow would be heavy with several inches of snow west. Then snow/ lots of sleet/ little freezing rain ending as snow. Then little snow/little sleet/lots of freezing rain ending as snow. You get the idea?
Perhaps the most likely scenario at this point…A combination of the above. Probably what happens is that we get that inch or two later Monday evening as the coastal storm begins to develop. But it doesn’t really hug the coast, it’s close enough to throw moisture back, but not a ton. So you get heavier precip totals as you approach the coast. But of course the coldest air is west. So there will be the favored zone that maximizes available cold with precip…probably somewhere from the Triangle to I-95.
Should be fun to see it evolve. At this point expect a significant event that will shut down NC for at least Tues.
Then behind the storm another shot of cold air comes in, and with snow on the ground temperature will really bottom out. Depending on sky cover, single digits to zero could be in the works.
Finally, what’s behind that? Another Fri/Sat storm?
Comments (0)