…the “Special Lady at the Waffle House”
Yesterday we talked about a more suppressed storm track and what that would mean for us. Some of the runs have shown some reeeeeally suppressed solutions (6Z GFS had no precip in NC) and even the operational 12Z Euro is pretty far south, with NC on the northern edge of the precip shield until the low rounds the bend at the coast heading north. In this scenario, east of I-95 gets the worst of it.
But this far out, as much fun as it is to look at each model run come in, we really need to paint with a broad brush of generalities. What we’re likely to see are track solutions jumping back and forth before settling down over the weekend. At this point, I am expecting a significant winter episode for much of NC early Tues into Wed. We can talk amounts and ptype over the weekend.
One more thing to address…the well-advertised cold we have now and even colder shot coming Sat night will set the stage for any frozen precipitation to quickly cause problems. Many times with NC winter events, some portion of the initial snow or sleet is lost from accumulating because of warm antecedent ground conditions. This will not be the case this go round. (Remember when .3″ of snow caused 10hrs of gridlock back in 2005?! That was primarily because the roads were very cold to start with.)
Stay tuned. It should be fun to see how this evolves.
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