Weathertrex.com

Raleigh has escaped the storm with the best possible outcome…a beautiful 4-7″ snow and temps hovering just above freezing to avoid any damaging ice build up.

But wait, there’s more…

It looks like there will be another round of snow and sleet early tomorrow AM as another shortwave rounds the trough.  The latest trends in the modeling indicate there could be another burst of heavy precip for at least a couple hours.  Surface temps will again be hovering close to freezing, but the precipitation rates should be high enough to achieve more accumulation.  This doesn’t look to be the case for everyone in NC, but under this band should be a thumping of 1-2″ …possibly isolated cases of 3 or 4″.   Right now the Triangle looks to be included in this next round.  And this would be just in time for tomorrow’s morning commute.  More winter fun!

Tomorrow evening clearing will following and temps will drop to the mid 20’s for lows.  Refreezing will be a major issue on Tuesday morning.

As much as everyone wants to hear the latest… the latest is that what I outlined yesterday still looks good to me tonight.

I can see concerns for bust potential above and below my current forecast.  My thoughts on Wake Co. follow, but really they are applicable to the wider region…

• bust big?… there will be a period of heavy snow after the initial onset of precip which quickly cycles thru rain to sleet to snow.  some models say there could be as much as 6-8″ in that initial hit.  so, you’d have that and then sleet and then frz rain.
• bust small?… fears of the warm tongue penetrating earlier and more pronounced would limit the initial accumulation of snow and changeover precip to sleet and freezing rain much more quickly.

I’m going in the middle on this and holding firm to my forecast from yesterday.  The action starts overnight with snow beginning in earnest between 2 and 3am.  I’ll nowcast early morning with an update for how that tricky transition zone looks.

It’s been many, many years since NC has experienced a winter snow of this magnitude this early in December.  This storm promises to make it a December to remember.

As has been widely advertised, there are going to be heavy snows to the west, rain to the south and east and a battle zone that should line up fairly close to a line from Raleigh to Charlotte where the forecast is super complicated and the weather super messy. I can hear the bemoaning of the infamous “line” as I type.  There are some interesting numerical modeling disagreements ongoing behind the scenes that hopefully will be resolved soon, but in the larger picture here are a couple of key points:

• There will be a lot of moisture available for this system.  Liquid equivalents will run about 2″ for most along and south of the Triangle and Triad with amounts tapering to an inch along the Virginia border.
• Heavy snows of 12 to 20″ will be common in places like Greensboro, Hickory, Boone, Asheville where most of the moisture comes in the form of snow with little mixing.
• The zone to the south and east, in places like Burlington, Chapel Hill, Salisbury and Concord, should probably expected half snow, half sleet and a little freezing rain.
• The next zone to the south and east has Durham and Raleigh and Charlotte.  I expect a mixed bag of it all…something like 3-6″, 1-2″ of sleet and 1/4 of freezing rain.  Remember that west and north in these zones you are more likely to skew to snow.  For instance, Durham may get 6″, Raleigh may only get 3 or 4″.
• Remember that whatever snow you get will be compacted by any sleet falling on top of it.  So, you could measure 6″ pre-sleet and shrivel down to only 3″ afterwards.
• IMPORTANT: The impacts of this event will be high and widespread no matter what form the frozen stuff on the ground is.  And after you get a couple inches, it’s really all the same in terms of impacts.  It just takes longer to go away with more of it there when it’s over.
• Something to watch will be the extent of the freezing rain.  If the warm nose penetrates farther north and west and deeper than is currently thought, significant ice accrual could become a real problem.
• Timing:  this looks to arrive from south to north overnight tomorrow.  For Raleigh, perhaps in the 1-3am timeframe.

As always, stay tuned as we monitor the latest trends and I will update as necessary.

Details need to be ironed out, but what it clear is that an early season winter storm is on tap for much of NC this weekend.

I don’t want to get into specifics this early… we have plenty of time for backyard forecasting later.  At this point, let’s say that from Wake Co. N and W this will be a high impact event with significant snow, sleet and freezing rain beginning at late night Sat into Sun and continuing thru Mon.  Especially from Greensboro west, the snow totals will be historic for this early in the season.

Of course, we still have three days to go, but as it is now… the model guidance is converging on a storm to remember.  Start making alternate plans for Sun, Mon and Tues of next week.

A quick post to say, yes… there is the potential for a major winter storm in many parts of NC, VA and upstate SC this weekend.

Of course, all that potential doesn’t mean anything unless it’s in your back yard.  It’s waaaaay too early to say anything definite.  Be alert for the possibility of significant issues, especially north and west of Raleigh.  At this point, we can say that there is the potential for higher precip totals (liquid, frozen or refrozen).

We will monitor the evolution of this system for impacts Saturday night thru Monday. This will be a fun week of forecasting!

The current thinking on the weekend wintry weather is that Raleigh will be (slightly) on the warm side of the action.  Could be.  Or not.

Remember when you were a kid playing on the seesaw?  Did you ever play with the kid who was so very close to your weight that you could nearly balance each other?  Didn’t really matter how close, just that he/she had that extra little mass that tipped the seesaw in their favor.  And once tipped, it was all out.  They were on the ground; you were in the air.

And so, this weekend’s setup is a bit of a meteorological seesaw.  The atmosphere is really close to that tipping point where no wintry precip transitions to sleet with heavy wet snow to lots of heavy wet snow…all while surface temps hover just above freezing.

Right now, I’d be on alert for areas north of hwy 64.  This will be one of those situations where the numerical guidance will have a hard time exacting the boundary.  We’ll have to wait until tomorrow evening to really see how this plays out.  The safe bet is that Raleigh just gets a coating of white stuff.  The reality is that Raleigh could get a lot more.  And depending on where that tipping point falls (the gradient will be sharp), we could see a situation where the northern part of the county has significant accumulation, while the southern part is clear.

Let’s figure this out tomorrow!

First off, about the snow for tomorrow (Wednesday)…  it’s not a big deal.  Just like last week wasn’t a big deal.  I don’t generally post unless there will be a significant impact from an event, or i’m intrigued by the possibilities.  So, I’m actually posting now, because I’m intrigued by the potential for a Palm Sunday snow this weekend, and not what will come tomorrow.  It’s a good thing my church is smart and employs a meteorologist to guide them through any meteorological mayhem during the high holy days! 😉

And talk about climatologically unfavorable!  The setup for Sunday is out of the ordinary a) because it’s so late in the season, and b) because of the clipper-like nature of the low diving south of us from the northwest.  We generally don’t get appreciable snows from clipper systems, and many of them go over top of us or to our north, leaving us on the warm side of things.  This could be different.  There is some evidence to suggest that the March Madness that started last weekend with Virginia losing in the NCAA tourney may continue for us with a rare snow.

It’s a hundred years off in meteorologist-time, so a lot can and will change.  But it’s something to watch and see how it develops.

we’re off!

And snow it begins…

Snow is now accumulating over Wake County.  I’m comfortable with last night’s forecast of 7-9″.  However, the latest short term modeling and upstream reports indicate that those numbers may still be too low for western Wake County and back to to Durham/Chapel Hill.  So, we may be looking at 8-10″ with some lucky locales that push a foot.

Enjoy!

…not really, but we need to up these totals.

I understand the need for the NWS and news outlets to be cautious, but all the modeling indicates heavier snow totals in the Triangle and in general across the state.  Ensemble means are running near 5″…impressive.  The latest short term and global American models this evening depict well over 1/2″ of liquid equivalent.  With snow ratios likely to run greater than 10:1, it should be easy to achieve snow totals in excess of 6″.  We shall monitor the overnight runs of the Euro and the short term models.

Bottom line…I’m expecting 7-9″ across the Triangle.  Snow begins early morning (mixed with rain) and really begins to kick around 8 or 9am.  Expect moderate to heavy snow for 6-8 hours, lightening up to spotty snow showers in the evening.

The fun begins soon!