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This week, a major winter storm will affect a large chunk of real estate from Missouri to Tennessee thru the Carolinas up the coast thru the Mid-Atlantic and perhaps into the Northeast. NC appears to be destined for a week of disruptive weather.

We begin the excitement tomorrow with the passage of a strong cold front. In addition to more rain and thunderstorms, some of which will be heavy, there will likely be a period of several hours where winds will gust from 35-55mph. This will be problematic for saturated soils from days of rain. Expect downed trees that will leave thousands around the state without power. Enjoy a brief rain-soaked tag of the 60s because behind the front WNW winds will usher in much colder, drier air.

Then, we turn our attention to the headliner for midweek. To reiterate, this will be a major disruptive storm for much of NC. There will be a lot of precip. The question will be what the recipe is for the makeup of frozen stuff in your backyard. All the modeling points to storm total QPFs (liquid equivalent) of a minimum of 1″ across the state. So whether it’s all snow (unlikely at this point for Wake Co) or a mixed bag of snow, sleet and freezing rain or all freezing rain… these are all bad scenarios if you don’t like winter weather.

Still 3-4 days away, there is much detail to suss out. There is agreement that surface temps will be solidly below freezing. Uncertainty creeps in as to the extent of the mid-level warm air surge. This will dictate the ratio of snow to sleet to freezing rain.

The Euro has been consistent in its favoring of predominantly ice until today’s midday run. It was significantly colder and more suppressed with the storm track today, resulting in more snow and sleet in combination with the freezing rain. As hackneyed as it is… the ‘trend is your friend’. So, we’ll see if this is a trend or a wobble.

A word about timing… now, consensus is that precip begins Wednesday AM. Many times, though, once we transition from mid to short range horizons, timelines trend earlier. Over the next couple days, I will be looking for the possibility of precipitation beginning as early as late Tuesday evening. Regardless, the duration for accumulating frozen precipitation should be 10-12hrs.

Key Points:

1 — Potential problematic gusting winds above 50mph on Sunday with periods of heavy rain and a thunderstorm

2 — A major winter storm will impact NC on Wednesday. Regardless of the version of wintry precip we receive (snow vs. sleet vs freezing rain), storm totals will cause widespread travel and potential power outages related to downed trees and power lines. The green light to buy the requisite bread and milk looks to be coming soon!

For the past couple days I’ve been very good not to hype next week’s pattern. Now comes the time to begin evaluating the possibilities for frozen fun.

A couple of things to note:

1 – Overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning will bring the chance for wind gusts from 35-50 mph. Given the excessive rain we’ve had, the soil is loose, so the possibility for downed trees and power lines needs to be considered.

2 – At a week out (targeting the middle of next week), there is still a lot of run-to-run variability as to the track of a southern storm in all global models. What we can say is that all the models show the storm and the signal in the ensembles continues to amp up. The track will decide the precip-type, and until the model’s converge on a solution for that, we’re just hand-waving and conjecturing.

Key point for now is that a winter storm for the NC and VA appears likely. We’ll know more about who gets 35° rain vs. ice vs. snow early next week. Let the snow dance begin!

The 18Z NAM, hot off the presses, has come in trending bullish for tonight’s event. It basically adds an additional .1 to .15″ of QPF (liquid equivalent) across our area on the western periphery of the precipitation shield compared to previous runs (and with even higher totals down east.) So, it seems the westward trend continues. And while it is difficult to know if this is just a bobble that will settle back with the next run, it is worth noting that upstream snow totals along the Gulf Coast, as well as the northern extent of the precipitation axis have both generally overachieved.

I’ll continue to monitor the latest to see if this translates into that bust potential to the high end. Remember also that this will be will be a dry snow with snow to liquid equivalent ratios running higher than the 10:1 rule-of-thumb. That fact could also help fluff up totals. We’ll see if we have to bump up these numbers later this evening.

Snow should begin in Wake Co. in the 6-7pm timeframe this evening. Snow will begin lightly and increase to steady thru the evening. Snow should end by midnight or 1am tonight.

There is no real change to the thinking. This event will favor highest totals in the coastal plain with waning totals as you head westward. There will probably be a large swath of flurries to a dusting throughout NC. The line for measurable snow will run along a SW to NE axis from Charlotte to Chapel Hill to South Hill, VA. In Raleigh, I’m expecting 1 to 2″ …again with that west to east gradient. So even across Wake Co., you’re more likely to get 1″ at RDU and 2+” in Wendell.

For Raleigh, my forecast is just under 2″. Bust potential to the low side is .5″. Bust potential to the high side is 3″. Regardless of the total, it is very cold and will remain so. Lows will be in the teens tonight after the snow departs. Tomorrow we won’t get above freezing. The sun will help with melting, but again with the air temperature still below freezing and going down to the low to mid teens by Thursday AM, there will still be travel headaches, especially on the secondary roads.

Obviously, this is not the big one for Raleigh, but head down East if you’d like to experience a fairly wide swath of 3-5″ snows with lucky winners that may achieve over 6″. As you get closer to the coast, sleet mixing in will reduce those totals.

Enjoy whatever you get. After this round, we should get a reprieve from the cold with temperatures rebounding to seasonal norms by the weekend.

Last time we left off with… “It will be feast or famine snow <for Wake Co>”

Maybe though, even as the 100 miles didn’t seem to go in our favor in the past 36 hours’ model runs, tonight, we may be converging on a solution that will at least serve appetizers!

At this point, (emphasizing higher totals from east to west) a middle-of-the-road guess for Raleigh is probably 1/3 to an 1 inch. Important to note is that all models are now trending westward with the moisture field. Tonight’s 0Z models depict a significant bump westward. We’ll see if the trend continues or if that progress stalls. Just to tease, but still on the table is 3+” if, if and if.

I’ll update tomorrow after the 12Z model suite comes in.

Let’s go Snow(Pack)!

Several days ago we knew it was going to be cold and thought there might be a Deep South snowstorm.

Tonight we know it’s going to be cold and we know there’s going to be a Deep South snowstorm.

Now, there’s JUST ONE THING we need to know. The question that remains is what the track of the storm will be. Obviously, the track determines the moisture axis and where the wintry precip falls. We’ve seen fewer Miller-A setups in recent years, and this time around, the high pressure will be quite strong in pushing a very cold airmass quite far south. Just how strong it ends up being will help determine how suppressed the storm track will be. And when we’re talking about snow to the entire Gulf coastline… that’s suppressed.

I expect the ensembles to converge on a consensus track tomorrow… (even as the last couple runs of the GFS want to go for two smaller storms rather than one). So until then, we’re really just pretending if we say we know the track more than within a couple hundred miles. And a couple hundred miles variance for Wake Co. will be the difference between a dusting and 10+” of snow.

To sum it up for now… ‘warm’ rain tomorrow, maybe a lucky snow shower later, north… probably not. Cold air rushes in tomorrow night and highs on MLK Day sill struggle to reach 30°. Moisture enters the area Tuesday evening and depending the storm track, it will be feast or famine snow!

Ok, maybe I’ve actually been excited… for a couple of days.

But I’ve been skeptical and still am cautiously optimistic that another chance for a significant storm will remain in play.

There have been some spectacular runs from the deterministic models over the past couple days (and many bone-dry, tear-jerkers and many cold rains). Now, though, ensemble support is building from the entire suite of global models for winter weather fun in the Carolinas.

I’ll make this update short and sweet… we’re a week or so out, looking at next late Tues/Wed/Thurs. There’s no need to hypothesize any details at this point, as most every cold scenario has potential… Some huge. Some wide-right (= cold and dry). Some wide-left (= cold rain).

In the meantime, we’ll see a bit of a roller coaster with a quite cold today, before warming “all the way up” to the low 50s (which is normal, but will feel semi-tropical in comparison to the extend cold) over the weekend along with rain ahead of the transition to the really cold air first of next week. And there may even be a chance for the elusive cold-air chasing the moisture, such that we get a couple of snow showers Monday.

Enjoy the ride. Hopefully, we enjoy the destination!

And again… ‘I will NOT be excited for snow!’

To quote my last post on Jan 3rd… “late Friday/Saturday (Jan 10/11). Things look intriguing.”

The good news for winter weather lovers is that things continue to look intriguing. And while this setup will go down as a wasted opportunity for a major storm, NC still looks to be squarely in focus for a widespread winter weather event with significant impacts across the state.

With just about 36 hours before the precip begins in the Triangle, there are a number of nagging disagreements in the modeling. Here’s where we have confidence…

Precip with spread over NC from SW to NE during the day Friday, such that we should see snow begin in the Triangle in the 4-6pm range. There could be a couple of flurries or light showers ahead of this, but the real action in Raleigh should get started as the sun sets. Precipitation will continue thru the evening and overnight. Wake County looks to be near where a transition zone will setup, mixing the snow with sleet and including some freezing rain which will produce minor glazing.

The troubling part for me is the behavior of the NAM (American short term model). It has very little snow for us, a lot of sleet and even more freezing rain. And while the NAM is supposed to be better with smaller scale vertical temperature nuances, I feel like it’s way over doing it with this warm tongue intrusion just below 850mb. It’s important to respect this possibility, and I’d like to see more corroboration from the other models as we get closer.

For now, I’d say that Raleigh gets 2″ of snow plus a layer of sleet (which will pack down the snow) followed by a thin glaze of freezing rain. All that should look like 2-3″ of a potpourri of p-types on the ground by the time we’re done.

It will be colder with more snow to the north and west, and more sleet and freezing rain to the south and east. Model trends have been toward more moisture across the NC/SC. We’ll see if that trend continues and we eek out a little more white stuff, in general.

Travel conditions should go downhill tomorrow evening and then even after the precip ends early Saturday morning, it will take a while for travel conditions to improve. There will probably be a window where things thaw out on Saturday after lunch, but as soon as the sun goes down, temps will drop and a hard freeze will take us down close to 20° overnight. Lots of widespread black ice are expected on Sunday AM.

Here comes the cold, as advertised.

Central NC looks to miss out on the winter-side of this weekend’s major winter storm, which will be a high-impact from Kansas to NJ with a swath of foot+ totals. While we may see some freezing rain and sleet near the onset of our precipitation later Sunday, that will change over to cold rain before any real travel concerns arise.

For NC, it’s common to expect the first storm, immediately behind the arctic front, to track so that we just miss out. In extended cold periods, we look down the road for the ‘next’ one (or maybe that’s just the Wolfpack fan in me… always looking for the next one). In this case, we’re talking about next late Friday/Saturday (Jan 10/11). Things look intriguing. Maybe, just maybe.

Obviously, not a White Christmas, but maybe an honest to goodness snow… just like the ones I used to know.

The long-range indications we saw back in early December for a significant cold shot in January appear to be on point. Model runs continue to vary from run-to-run with solutions ranging from apocalyptic to general, widespread cold. The trend is undeniable, with much ensemble support for a decidedly cold period east of the Rockies after the first week of January.

In terms of cold and snow potential, the Euro ensembles (remember, the Euro ensembles are comprised of 50 individual members) look about as promising as they can be for 10-15 days out. Of course, there’s still plenty of time for Lucy to jerk the football away from Charlie Brown, so temper your excitement for now, and hold off stocking up on snow cream ingredients.

More immediately, the severe weather threat currently ongoing in the Deep South should arrive in the Carolinas tomorrow (Sunday). Enjoy the 60s and 70s now before they are gone by midweek. Stay alert tomorrow for potentially strong storms and gusty winds.

Hopefully, I’ll have reason next week to discuss specifics on potentially wintry scenarios for the following week.