Weathertrex.com

…as in, I’m looking to up expected snow totals a bit… albeit with the risk of a Charlie Brown, Lucy, football reenactment!

A consensus is forming in the numerical guidance with regard to tonight’s snow event. QPFs have trended higher, which will lead to greater cooling of the column, which will lead to higher snow totals across the northern half of NC.

We should see precipitation break out in the Triangle in the form of rain around 9pm. Then, we’ll see that typical cold, NC winter rain thru midnight. Between midnight and 1am we should see the changeover to all snow. Precipitation rates look to be moderate, so I would expect some picturesque moderate to even heavy snow. There will be a window of just 4-5 hours for the snow, and most of it should be wrapped up by dawn. If you want to see it, set those middle of the night alarms for 3am!

Expected heaviest accumulations north of a line from Greensboro to Raleigh to Wilson. Totals will range 2-4″ with perhaps some 5-6″ totals toward the Virginia border. A good target for Raleigh is around 3″. Bust potential to the downside will be just a dusting. Bust potential to the high side would be 5″.

Ground temps and particularly road temps are fairly warm, so this accumulation will be primarily in the grass, especially early. Although with the anticipated heavier snow rates, the roads could eventual succumb to the snow. However, once the snow stops and the sun comes up, any problems will quickly dissipate.

I’m still eyeing the next system for Sunday. However, we may turn out to be on the warm side of that, but it’s something to continue to monitor. And especially interests north and west should keep tabs on the latest.