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The American models throw a damper on the party this evening.

At this point, they may be the outliers… in contrast, to the Canadian that came in on point for the storm as advertised. As of this writing, I’m not inclined to change any of my general scenario… yet.

Several days ago, we talked about the possibility for Raleigh to miss this as the storm could skew to the east. Maybe that can happen with this? We’ll wait for any pivots until all of tonight’s runs come in; but, more importantly, tomorrow’s midday runs of the 12Z suite. Those will show us know if this is a blip vs. a trend.

For now, let’s reiterate the axis of heaviest snow, with a tweak to pull the west-most point of Albemarle to change to Pittsboro. This becomes the west-most point of the favored axis, continuing on to Norfolk.

Anyway you look at it, Scotland Neck to Norfolk will have the highest totals, 5-10″ there. Then from Scotland Neck back to Pittsboro, totals should range from 3-6″.

Updates tomorrow!