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Hope everyone enjoyed their cometic snow event this morning!

I thought I’d follow up on my earlier alert for end of this week, especially since the snow hype machine will begin in full force after the last couple runs of the Euro (and to be fair the GFS, too)

Yes, it seems a pretty good bet there will be a significant East Coast winter storm into the weekend.  But the range of outcomes with regard to sensible weather and it’s impact literally run the spectrum.  At this point, we need to be alert for the possibility a strong storm with significant wintry consequences over a good portion of the East Coast from NC north thru New England.  There’s a lot that could go wrong…so, let’s wait and watch.

Right now, it looks like NC would be on the southern end of the action with a mixed bag in the Triangle.  It’s a classic setup with more proportion of snow north and west with the mountains the big winners.  Interesting to note that the timeline has been trending faster by the numerical guidance, which helps from a cold-air-in-place-perspective.  Not in our favor, is the low origin, which would traverse the Tennessee Valley.  A more favorable setup for central NC would have the low farther south.

There no doubt the Euro is the model with the best skill in these situations, but it doesn’t mean it’s right on day 5 or 6, just that it’s the best of what we have.  Should be fun to see what sort of corroboration exists for the major storm in the operational run when the ensembles come out in a couple hours.

Again, plenty of time to dissect this over the next couple days.  Don’t run to the grocery yet!

Happy New Year!

Curiously, there seems to be quite a buzz about the potential for 14 flakes of snow this weekend.  And with the buzz come many questions directed my way.  So, I thought I’d take a second to clarify that if I am not excited about the possibility of something wintry (or otherwise meteorologically spectacular), then I probably won’t post.  That is…if something is going to be a non-event (like the flurries before Christmas), there is really no need to update.  So, going forward, consider no news as bad news for the snow lovers out there.  And if you want more frequent thoughts from me on the weather you can follow me on twitter @trextrex14.  I tend to tweet with short updates especially when an extended post is not warranted.

All this being said, this weekend looks quite unimpressive.  The cold will follow Monday and beyond, and the cold will be significant.  But more intriguing is a system pegged for late next week into weekend.  Let’s watch that to see if we lovers of the white flake from above will be more than satiated!

This evening’s post was my first attempt at posting via mobile.  So I used Siri to lessen the typing.  And then I didn’t have time to proof.  I’ve corrected the post now, but there were some funny things!  Ha!

How’s this for a front! (valid tomorrow AM)

The latest American models continue a wintry threat, if even a bit less bullish.  But there’s really not an appreciably significant difference.  Tomorrow, as the time horizon of interest comes into range of the  high-res short-term models, we will evaluate along with radar trends to see how many problems we’ll have.

HOUSEKEEPING ISSUES…some of you have voiced concern that you have not been receiving emails when I update the site.  I’m not sure what’s wrong, but will look into it.  In the meantime just check back to the top page (don’t use a link from an old email because it will mostly likely take you to a specific post).  Navigate to weathertrex.com directly and you will always get the latest post.

As hard as it is to imagine with springlike temps well into the 70s, winter make a triumphant return tomorrow. The cold front is spectacular. It will come through later tonight and the real cold air arrives tomorrow during the day. Temperatures will fall through the day such that by late afternoon temperatures will be near freezing. The sooner you get to freezing the more time the moisture has to work with the cold air. So this event will set up with the highest ice accruals and sleet accumulation in a north to south gradient.  The models are trending a little wetter with the backend moisture over the past couple of days, such that now much of the northern half of NC will see at least some freezing/frozen precipitation.

It looks like there will be combinations of freezing rain and sleet as the predominant P-types when the rains changes over. Determining how much of each of those you get will drive how impactful the storm will be.  If it’s predominantly freezing rain, it will take longer to cool the very warm ground temperatures from today’s beautiful weather. However, if there’s an appreciable amount of sleet involved, then roads will become impacted much sooner.

Overnight lows tomorrow evening will be in the upper teens, so black ice will be a problem regardless of if it freezes on contact or freezes later overnight.  Best guest for Raleigh will be up to a 1/2 of sleet and 1/10″inch of glaze in the trees and elevated surfaces. Durham may be a little higher on those totals. And certainly towards the Virginia border and Roxboro… They will see the most significant impacts from this storm.

Lots of time still to watch, and watch we will. Looks like another snow day for the kids on Friday.

As I mentioned before, this will not be a good setup for a significant event.  However, it does seem probable that the rain will change to sleet and maybe some freezing rain late Thursday as the cold air invades.  Big changes from the 70s tomorrow to falling temps thru the day on Thursday.  Ground temps running higher will help limit any appreciable accumulation.

Will continue to watch as we get closer, of course.  It will be a borderline situation no matter how you slice it.

I know we’re not used to it, but tomorrow will be your one day with the sun out that’s above freezing!  Yes, Wednesday could be pushing 70 (with rain)…and that’s where the fun begins.  We’ll get a roaring southerly flow ahead the next blast of cold air.  And it looks like as the cold front comes thru, it will stall just along the coast.  So markedly colder air will be infiltrating NC as a wave of low pressure uses the frontal boundary as a guide to move north with more moisture.  If this scenario materializes, we would see rain change to sleet and eventually to all snow later Wed night into Thurs AM.

A couple of caveats…it’s 4 days out, this is not a typical snow setup for NC, we will have warm temps ahead of the front earlier in the day and it is now March so sun angles are really climbing.  Having said all that…the GFS has been pretty consistent on insisting this and there is support from the Euro and ensembles.  What’s two more snow days among friends?!?!

Yes, it looks like there will be some minor icing tomorrow AM.  But this will not be a major event, if fact there should be few if any problems in the Triangle.  It looks like the rain will be light and patchy in the early AM and thru mid morning when temps will be below freezing.  That being said, anything that falls should freeze easily in the trees and elevated surfaces.  It’s just that there shouldn’t much until later when the temps should rise above freezing.  Heaviest icing will be west of Raleigh toward the Triad where more moisture is expected sooner.  For Raleigh, expect a light glaze at the most.  Roads should generally be fine, but as always watch those bridges and overpasses first.  We’ll watch it tonight to make sure nothing changes.