Weathertrex.com

Hope everyone enjoyed their cometic snow event this morning!

I thought I’d follow up on my earlier alert for end of this week, especially since the snow hype machine will begin in full force after the last couple runs of the Euro (and to be fair the GFS, too)

Yes, it seems a pretty good bet there will be a significant East Coast winter storm into the weekend.  But the range of outcomes with regard to sensible weather and it’s impact literally run the spectrum.  At this point, we need to be alert for the possibility a strong storm with significant wintry consequences over a good portion of the East Coast from NC north thru New England.  There’s a lot that could go wrong…so, let’s wait and watch.

Right now, it looks like NC would be on the southern end of the action with a mixed bag in the Triangle.  It’s a classic setup with more proportion of snow north and west with the mountains the big winners.  Interesting to note that the timeline has been trending faster by the numerical guidance, which helps from a cold-air-in-place-perspective.  Not in our favor, is the low origin, which would traverse the Tennessee Valley.  A more favorable setup for central NC would have the low farther south.

There no doubt the Euro is the model with the best skill in these situations, but it doesn’t mean it’s right on day 5 or 6, just that it’s the best of what we have.  Should be fun to see what sort of corroboration exists for the major storm in the operational run when the ensembles come out in a couple hours.

Again, plenty of time to dissect this over the next couple days.  Don’t run to the grocery yet!