I feel like I’m in middle school…I’ve been talking with a cute girl. She’s very flirty. I invite her to the dance. We agree to meet there because she’s going to come late. I wait. The clock ticks on. There are only a few more minutes before the dance is over. She’s still not here. The last song begins to play. Where is she? You see where this is going.
Tomorrow’s situation is a classic setup for heartbreak of the NC snow lover. Lots of moisture and lots of rain on the front end of the storm. Plenty of cold air advection and dynamic cooling aloft to suggest a changeover to snow on the back end. But therein lies the rub. Time after time it seems so clear, only to have hopes dashed as the cold air rushes in behind the storm and erodes the moisture field. This girl has stood me up at the dance too many times for me to easily buy it this go round. That’s why from the get-go on this one, I’ve been saying that I’m skeptical.
The past several model runs have come into convincing consensus as to the evolution of the approaching storm. As I mentioned, there will be good soaking rains during the day Thursday, transitioning thru a rain/snow mix to all snow overnight into early Friday morning. Of course, the question is…when is the change in relation to the end of the precipitation? (Will she show up before the dance is over?)
At this point I’m ready to say that it will snow north and west of a line from Rocky Mount to the Triangle to the just north of Charlotte. And probably, that line will end up being the line for accumulating snow. North and west of that line there will be significant snows…especially, toward Greensboro and Roxboro into southern Virginia and of course, the mountains. More specifics later.
We’ll see how the dance goes this time around. Maybe she’ll show up early for bigger snows, or maybe it’ll be the same scenario where we’re left waiting for her to show as the music fades…
For those who grew up in the 80s, click on the play button, close your eyes and picture the middle school dance…
2:45 AM, January 17, 2013andywright59 /
None event according to Vegas