In the meteorological nerd underworld, tomorrow will be a sight to behold. To say the temperature differential across this front is steep is an understatement. The backdoor cold front is dropping south this evening across VA. Charlottesville dropped 20° in about 2 hours this afternoon. It’s a little hard to imagine that we’re talking about winter weather when today was a beautiful foretaste of spring with a high of 71 and the 10pm temp still holding at 60° at RDU.
The backdoor cold front comes thru tomorrow AM with temps still near 50 at the bus stop. Then, as we progress the rain begins and bottom falls out of the temperature floor. The rain will changeover to sleet from north to south, which times out near lunchtime in the Triangle. The sleet will be showery and perhaps heavy at times, before changing over to a light snow or freezing drizzle on the back end as the cold dry air takes over. The amazing thing will be to go from waking up to 50°ish and ending up at about 25° for ‘slush hour’, I mean rush hour. Then the cold air continues to funnel in with overnight lows in the mid teens.
Most probably, the sleet and then snow should accumulate in the Triangle to only something like 1/4 to 1/2″. But remember sleet is more efficient at causing problems than snow. The fact that we were so warm today obviously works in our favor for limiting accumulations. So, there is the opportunity to dodge a bullet with lighter precipitation rates. With lighter rates the ground has time to respond and melt the sleet. We’ll evaluate the radar trends tomorrow AM and nowcast from there.
To reiterate, this is north/south storyline. Closer to the VA border, the more sleet and snow. Closer to Fayetteville, the more rain and fewer sleet pellets. The real heart of the storm will impact central and northern VA with impressive snow totals. Travel to DC and Baltimore will be a no go, while the NYC and Philly get just a glancing blow.
Glad I don’t have to make the early release call for the schools tomorrow!
11:26 AM, March 3, 2014A. Williams /
Has the majority of the moisture already passed before the cold air gets here???