Spoiler alert… tomorrow’s setup is one that lacks the cold air necessary for a decent snowfall. The moisture should arrive well before the cold air. So this will be a situation where we’re hoping there’s still enough precipitation remaining by the time the lower-level temperature profile supports snow. Even then, it’s likely that surface temperatures will remain a couple of degrees above freezing until after the precipitation has ended.
What has trended in our favor is an increasing confidence in greater precipitation totals. This is important because higher precipitation rates will help to dynamically cool the elevated above-freezing pockets. So there’s at least a path to some heavy bursts of snow where the column cools to isothermal right around freezing. That’s the good news, if you want snow.
The bad news is surface temps will remain above freezing thru the event. Accumulations will be limited to grassy surfaces and elevated, exposed surfaces. Roads should not be impacted given today’s temps in the 50s.
Models are still all over the place, with some showing several inches and others keeping it mostly rain. Reality is probably closer to rain for much of the event, mixing with and then changing to snow. For Raleigh, that likely means a healthy dusting to maybe 3/4″. Bust potential down is all rain with some flakes mixed in and no accumulation. Bust potential up is we get lucky with a few heavy snow bursts that overwhelm the above-freezing boundary layer, and we could see up to 2″ on grassy surfaces. Not a likely outcome, but not totally off the table yet.
Timeline-wise: light rain breaks out overnight with an initial band, then a lull, then the main precip shield arrives around daybreak. Expect rain through the morning with temps in the low 40s, dropping into the mid 30s by lunchtime. That lunch-to-afternoon window is the best shot for snow in the Raleigh area. Again, the harder it precipitates, the better the odds it flips to accumulating snow. We’ll probably only have a 2–3 hour window to make the most of it.
So… maybe this is the snow that some of you are looking for… pretty coming down, a light blanket of white on the grass and car tops, and no impact on the roads.
Cold air rushes in behind the precip, with temps dropping into the mid 20s overnight. Black ice could be a concern for Monday AM travel.
And while tomorrow is interesting… I’m more intrigued by the possibility of a real winter storm for us in the 25-26th timeframe.
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