Nearly 30 years ago, we all laughed at Jeff Goldblum’s (Ian Malcolm) seductive example of chaos theory to entice Laura Dern (Dr. Sattler). There’s actually some truth to this come-on act.
For the past couple runs, all the numerical guidance has been whipping back and forth. Sometimes the solutions converge more readily than others. In this situation, there are several nuances that will ultimately determine if Boston gets 24″ or 2″… similarly, for NC (not 24 vs 2, but several vs. flurries)
There is no need to try to make any updated projections at this point. Hopefully, things will calm down in tomorrow’s runs as the upper-level wave becomes fully sampled into the model initializations.
Sorry for no real answers at this point. The short guess at this point is a general swath of 1/2″— lucky 2″ across the entire state. Beyond that, there is definitely the potential for more, especially in the NE part of the NC.
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