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… because I’m a little scared of Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown at the last second.

There are certainly ways this could still fly off the rails, but the preponderance of the evidence says this is shaping up to be a storm we’ll remember for a while. Steady guidance that lands midday tomorrow should have me more assured.

Quick thoughts…

All of the precipitation should fall as snow. Snow-to-liquid ratios will be high because of that very cold air in place, which makes it easier to pile up big totals.

There should be a broad swath of moderate snow across the region. The jackpot totals will come down to where deformation banding sets up. Depending on how amped the storm becomes and how the circulation wraps and pivots, there could be spots, especially down east, where a band parks over one location for hours. That’s the kind of setup that produces historic numbers, similar to the Jan 2000 storm when RDU picked up 20.3 inches.

So, best guess for Raleigh?
8 to 14 inches.

Bust low?
2 inches.

Bust high?
22 inches.