Weathertrex.com

Confidence is increasing for snow this weekend in NC, especially across central and eastern parts of the state.

The pattern is set up with a strong area of high pressure delivering very cold air deep into the South. An evolving upper level low will dive south and intensify. As that upper low crosses NC, it is likely to force an outbreak of light snow showers. Things get more interesting with the potential for multiple waves to align and spawn a coastal storm.

At this point, all three of these ingredients appear to have their boxes checked. The uncertainty lies in where the energy ultimately phases, which will determine how close to the coast the surface low forms and how it tracks to the north and east. As I mentioned last night, a shift of 50 to 75 miles west or east will make all the difference in snow totals. That range goes from a dusting driven mainly by the upper level low while the surface low is just a fish storm… to 3 to 4 inches with a storm a bit closer to the coast… to 1 foot or more if the coastal low is just right and you end up under a deformation band of enhanced precipitation.

Anyone who tells you they know how this will play out is flat out lying. The truth is that all of these outcomes are still on the table just over three days out. Right now, indications are that the latter two scenarios are favored. We could dive into which model says what, and how small shifts in positioning from run to run wildly change snowfall projections. And while it is fun to gasp at 30″ snowfall prints 😳, that is really all it is… fun to dream about, What If?

So, there’s no value in riding the ‘next-run-roller-coaster’ even if the thrills are high. Tomorrow evening’s 0Z model cycle should start to provide more confidence in how this evolves. And even the night before the storm, I can 100 percent guarantee I will be whining about how hard it is to pin down exactly where the coastal low forms. 🙂

For now, the takeaway is that there is a significant chance the Triangle sees accumulating snow this weekend. We should be thinking through contingency plans for Saturday and Sunday. Because… What if?