The picture is becoming more clear with more consistency among the different models as to how the event will evolve, even as exact QPF morphologies may differ. This is to say with growing confidence, accumulating snow is likely from the Triangle and points east. And of course, everyone wants to know if that means 1″ or 1′. In truth, both of these solutions are possible for Raleigh, and both these solutions will likely play out somewhere over eastern NC. Let me reiterate what I said yesterday about the sharp gradient to the western periphery of accumulations. It is quite likely that over the distance of something like only 20-30 miles you could have variance from a dusting to 4 or 5″. One of the factors that will also aid in larger accumulations should be the arctic air to the west, which will act to increase snow ratios. At the same time the arctic air is very dry, which acts to erode away the good moisture feed on the back edge. Hence…a sharp cut off.
Just for fun here are the last 3 runs of the liquid equivalent for the NAM (above) and GFS (below). The leftmost plots are the newest. You see the NAM has backed westward, while the GFS has trended eastward to give decent spatial agreement, even if the orientation of the band is somewhat rotated.
What you want to know is a number, though. Right? What’s in my backyard? OK, I’ll bite. FIRST GUESS – 4″ in central Raleigh, tapering to 1″ west to Durham and increasing to 8″ in Wilson. Make your own extrapolations from these guideposts. Again this is a first guess. I’ll revise tonight and again tomorrow.
Finally, note that the timing of this event is moving up a bit from what was first progged. The accumulating snow could begin as early as tomorrow mid-afternoon, with most of the snow tapering off southwest to northeast just after midnight.
The National Weather Service will upgrade the watches to warnings this afternoon. So it’s time to do what all good southern boys and girls do in a situation like this…RUN THE GROCERY!!
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