The Dixie Snow Special is moving out of Texas now, heading east along the Gulf Coast states. Dallas will end up with 4-6″ and there will be a band of similar accumulations from northern LA, and southern MS, AL, thru GA and SC. As the storm reaches the East Coast it begins to somewhat round the corner and deepen. Over the past 24 hours the US models have been trending the northern extent of the precip shield incrementally farther north into NC. With the latest runs bringing the .1″ liquid line to near the NC/VA border and the .25″ liquid line decidedly inland from our coast.
All this to say that snow looks to be coming to NC with this system. And the good news for you beach bums is that the heaviest accumulations will be down east near the coast. However, as it always is…the warmest air will be at the coast and the threat of mixing with rain will put a cap on any moderate totals. At this point there could be a couple of inches just inland where the best available moisture is. And then figuring out how it tappers back to the north and west is the next trick. One thing to consider is that the -7/-8 850mb isotherm (don’t worry if you don’t know what that means) will be very close to Raleigh. The would indicate high snow to liquid ratios on the order of 20:1. So, if Raleigh squeezed out .1″ of liquid we could be looking at 2″ of snow. (nearer to the coast ratios would run closer to 8:1)
Like I’ve said all week…this system bears watching. Some of the latest modeling is hinting that once the low hits the coast it my bomb out more than first indicated and if this happens we could easily see more QPF farther north and west. Rather than a couple of inches and dustings, we would be looking at a decent swath of 2, 3, 4, or 5″??? Not saying this is gonna happen. I’m just saying that we need to keep an eye on this. Latest model run that just came in a minute ago pushes the .25″ liquid line all the way to RDU!
Stay Tuned!!
