Now’s the point in the game when you’re staring down your opponent waiting for them to blink. Feeling pretty confident that they’ll back down, but thinking “what if they don’t?!?”
Everyone is looking for the big slice to the right as Earl still continues moving NNE this morning. Continuing on it’s current trajectory without any more bend to the right would result in a landfall just southwest of Ocracoke. This represents the worst case scenario at this point. But the thinking continues to be that we will see Earl head due north early this afternoon and then NNE this evening.
Earl has eased up in intensity since peaking early this morning as a strong category 4 with 145 mph winds and a minimum pressure of 928 mb. The 11am advisory should lower the winds back to 130-135 and the intensity at “closest brush” with the coast should be something that approximates that as a strong cat 3 or minimal cat 4. Anyway you look at it, it’s a major hurricane and the coast is lucky to not get a direct hit. Should be gusty winds all the way back to the I-95 corridor, but nothing like it could be with a more westerly track.
The first rain band is about to make it’s way onshore near ILM, but is dissipating into the dry air in place. The eye should be visible in long range radar images early after lunchtime.
At this point it’s watch and wait for the blink!
