Another Snowday

Confidence is increasing for snow on Wednesday.

As I said over the weekend, this is not a setup for a lot of snow for us.  And this is not a pattern that NC will typically see a lot of snow.  There is no surface storm (although a low will be forming off the coast with few consequences for NC).  All of the precipitation will be driven by upper level dynamics and frontogenetic forcing.  We have a reinforcing shot of cold air that will arrive overnight Tuesday.  However, ahead of that arctic boundary, temperatures should warm close to 50° tomorrow.  Most modeling indicates that the cold air surging in behind the front will easily overwhelm the warm boundary layer as the moisture arrives.  It’s a tricky situation, though, and I can’t even count the number of busted forecasts where the cold air arrived later than expected and a cold rain dominated before an unsatisfying changeover to snow at the end. #NCMeteorologistRecurringNightmare

So at this point, we shall cautiously proceed with a forecast for Raleigh that looks like:  Mild temperatures Tuesday dropping overnight to near freezing as the precipitation arrives between 7-9am.  Precipitation probably begins as a rain snow mix, but should changeover fairly quickly to all snow.  Accumulation of about 2″ in Raleigh.

Over/Under Bust Potential:  4″ / Dusting

Will update tomorrow with the latest.

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