A quick update as a blanket response to the thousand questions I’m getting about ‘the latest’.
To specifically address Wake Co. and Triangle…yes, it does look like the transition zone will be over or very close to Wake Co. during the middle of the event. If you’re rooting for a major event, don’t worry, we’ll get one. There is a lot of moisture to fall and much of it (after 10 tonight) will fall as something frozen. Obviously, the accumulation will be higher where there’s less sleet (north) and lower where there’s more sleet (south). The numerical guidance and meteorologists have done all that can be done to this point in outlining the storm and defining broad boundaries for this transition zone. What happens now is realtime data analysis to determine over the next several hours where the magic line ends up.
The message is that your snow cream is likely to have some crunch in it, but look at it as a culinary upgrade, rather than a problem! Just use more Eagle Brand Milk and you’ll be fine!
I actually think 6-10″ in the northern half of the county (plus western parts of the Triangle…Durham/Chapel Hill/Hillisborough) is good, while 3-6″ in the southern half of Wake is good. And while I buy the warm tongue penetrating all the way to northern Wake for at least some of the event, I’m also still a little skeptical that a couple degrees above freezing for a couple hundred feet might not be overcome by vigorous precipitation rates. That is, if it precipitates hard enough during the height of the storm (which looks likely), then it could conceivably snow right thru any warm layer, creating an isothermal layer right at the freezing point. Something to watch for…along with 143 other things.
Another thing to think about…all that brine that went down on the roads over the past couple days has really been compromised this PM with the rain. So, the pretreating isn’t going to help the roads very much.
More updates as the real part of the storm begins.