Weathertrex.com

…and Ices!

I’m happy to make this short and sweet this evening.  While we have this latest model, and that latest model…the guidance balances out to warrant holding steady with my current thinking.  With that said, it’s worth reiterating that the gradient of snow (and sleet) totals will be steep.  Knowing where the transition zone sets up will drive how the totals map ends up being draw.  Unfortunately, the state (limitation) of the science today is that we cannot honestly make those sorts of quantitative pronouncements.  We can, however, qualitatively say what the accumulation distribution will look like and refine the transition zone in a nowcasting mode.

To boil it down…my forecast for Raleigh of 3-5″ snow/sleet plus 1/4-1/3″ ice glaze plus 1″on Sat is good.  Can I see downside risks?  yes!  Can I see upside risks? yes!  Has tonight’s numerical guidance provided a clear direction?  no!  So let’s see how things evolve tomorrow AM.  They key will be how long we stay snow and/or how much sleet mixes in.  If we’ve begun mixing sleet by 10, then the lower end totals will rule.  If we keep predominantly snow thru after lunch, watch out.

Finally, to reiterate…for simplicity I’ve made just a Raleigh forecast.  You can extrapolate to other locations with the simple rule of thumb of… more accumulation north and west… less accumulation and more ice potential south and west (use the coastline as the angle for the line orientation)… moreover, there is more risk to change over to rain south and east.