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Well, here I am…all gussied up and smelling nice.  The music is thumping and the gym is dotted with groups of awkward adolescents swaying in clumsy cadence.  Now all she has to do is show up.  She…being the cold air, of course.

The thinking behind the forecast is basically unchanged from yesterday.  The models have been quite consistent and in agreement on the system’s evolution.  Yet, even as it would seem that the snow is on, the same nagging questions about the arrival of ‘the cold’ linger.  That, combined with warm ground temps, makes me worry.  Finally, the 18Z models dry us out a little quicker on the back end, which is also troubling.

It will definitely snow.  But, the accumulation of snow is predicated solely on the fact that it’s going to snow so hard to overcome a lot of warmth in the boundary layer.  It’s one of those situations where everyone will get some grassy accumulation, but maybe not much else unless the heavy snow is realized.  Under those heavy snow bands, the snow will accumulate quickly, maybe as much as 2+ inches per hour…and these are the locations that could see 5″.

As we get into early evening and we see what the radar signature looks like, we should be able to nowcast more accurately.  For now, i’m cautiously optimistic to stand by what I outlined last night, which is pretty consistent with the NWS and media.  But my tendency would be to skew to the low side rather than the high side until we see evidence that the cold is making real progress.  In Raleigh, I would think we won’t changeover until 9.

So until then, I’ll be hanging out at the dance, just waiting and listening to sappy 80s power ballads.  Click the play button to enjoy this one…