Weathertrex.com

Alright, I give in.  I’ll be waiting at the dance…again.  I’m ready to put out my first guess for accumulations.

Looks like the dynamics of this storm might be so impressive as to generate thunder snow.  The last thunder snow we had in the Triangle was during the most impressive snow we’ve ever seen, back in Jan (24th) of 2000 with 20″+.  So, tomorrow night when you’re out watching it snow, look for cloud to cloud lightning, even if it’s difficult to hear the thunder.  And these impressive dynamics could be the key to realizing impressive snow accumulations in spite of warm ground temps from our recent Indian Summer.  I’m thinking that after we see the changeover tomorrow evening, we’ll see a general swath of 1-3″ in the Triangle and on either side of the line I prescribed in my previous post…obviously with the dustings to 1″ on southern and easterly edges and the higher totals to the north and west.  But, the wildcard will be how the mesoscale bands set up.  The bands of convective snow could add another 1-2″ on top of these more general totals.  The sweet spot, though, for those near the Triangle looks to be just over the Virginia border where, depending on how those bands set up, should range 5-10″.

I’ll fine tune this tomorrow.