More Significant Event Possible

As hard as it is to imagine with springlike temps well into the 70s, winter make a triumphant return tomorrow. The cold front is spectacular. It will come through later tonight and the real cold air arrives tomorrow during the day. Temperatures will fall through the day such that by late afternoon temperatures will be near freezing. The sooner you get to freezing the more time the moisture has to work with the cold air. So this event will set up with the highest ice accruals and sleet accumulation in a north to south gradient.  The models are trending a little wetter with the backend moisture over the past couple of days, such that now much of the northern half of NC will see at least some freezing/frozen precipitation.

It looks like there will be combinations of freezing rain and sleet as the predominant P-types when the rains changes over. Determining how much of each of those you get will drive how impactful the storm will be.  If it’s predominantly freezing rain, it will take longer to cool the very warm ground temperatures from today’s beautiful weather. However, if there’s an appreciable amount of sleet involved, then roads will become impacted much sooner.

Overnight lows tomorrow evening will be in the upper teens, so black ice will be a problem regardless of if it freezes on contact or freezes later overnight.  Best guest for Raleigh will be up to a 1/2 of sleet and 1/10″inch of glaze in the trees and elevated surfaces. Durham may be a little higher on those totals. And certainly towards the Virginia border and Roxboro… They will see the most significant impacts from this storm.

Lots of time still to watch, and watch we will. Looks like another snow day for the kids on Friday.

Comments (2)

  1. 6:48 PM, March 4, 2015Duane  / Reply

    “The models of Trinity a little weather”
    Spellcheck 1 – Trexler 0

    I’m assuming ‘the models are trending a little wetter’

  2. 7:47 PM, March 4, 2015trex  / Reply

    Damn Siri!

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