Today has gone according to plan, but perhaps I have not been giving enough credit to the potential for snow for tomorrow. As I mentioned last night, the southern stream is very active with various waves blipping along. As they round the bend at the SouthEastern coast, there is the potential for development. Tomorrow’s wave is looking more promising for development farther west in today’s modeling. So, what looked to be a flurry or two, now looks to be more snow showery with the potential for some light accumulations, especially on grassy surfaces all the way back to central NC. Certainly the (relatively) heavier precip will be near the coast, but wintry precip will be tampered by a warmer boundary layer. Taken literally, the 18Z NAM, would be quite snowy, but there’s not much evidence to bit that hard yet. Just something to watch.
As for the main event for Wed evening into Thursday AM. While the operational GFS is the most easterly of the model data, it’s ensemble members are generally west into central NC with significant precip. The Euro is in a similar camp with it’s ensemble mean being wetter than the deterministic. All this to say that the stage is set for a potentially significant snowfall.
I’ll not mention totals for Wed night’s event until later tonight. I wouldn’t want anyone to get to excited too soon.
4:51 PM, February 23, 2015Mike Webb /
I don’t know what you’re talking about. It’s 78 and sunny here in Key West.
5:11 PM, February 23, 2015Pretty Handy Girl /
Thanks Mike! Now if you could predict whether Wake County will let the kids go to school on time, that would be awesome! 😉
6:06 PM, February 23, 2015Kat /
I just want to get my pancakes, sausage and Amy Love fix in… Then it can snow all it wants.
7:49 PM, February 23, 2015Lucy /
I want to get too excited! What are you thinking about totals?
8:17 PM, February 23, 2015Cameron /
Oh no. I can’t afford to miss chancel choir practice again. At least I have plenty of eggs, milk, and bread. French toast here I come.