Ice Event Wed Morning

It’s been a while since there’s been much to talk about in terms of wintry weather for Raleigh (aside from a quick blast of boo chilly air last week).  So today, in between monsoonal downpours, we are watching the potential for a significant icing event overnight Tuesday thru lunch on Wednesday.

ice tree

A fresh supply of cold air will begin arriving in NC as the rain exits later this evening.  So, the extent of low level cold air supply will not be in question.  The uncertainty will be in how much precip will fall in the Triangle, owing to a weak surface low riding up the coast.  The axis of heaviest precip will certainly lie to the east of Raleigh.  The extent to which it bulges back westward will be the question.

Models differ on this, ranging from just some drizzle and a hundredth or two of liquid equiv, to up to a 1/4″ of liquid equiv (QPF).  At this point, I would expect around a 1/10″ of ice accumulation, which will be enough to make for bad driving and a few problems, but not result in widespread power outages and/or bring lots of tree limbs down.  We’ll watch to see how the numerical guidance trends with QPF over the next day to get a better handle on if this will be just a nuisance event or something to make alternate plans for.

As to timing…It appears that we will be lucky that the freezing rain should begin late Tues evening (10pm to midnight) and continue overnight into Wed AM.  This should help with fewer travel problems, and let people evaluate the conditions Wed AM before venturing out.

More updates later.  But if you would like more frequent updates, follow me on twitter at:  trextrex14


Comments (1)

  1. 3:46 PM, January 12, 2015Bill Stephenson  / Reply

    Please add me to your email list about the weather in our area . Thanks ! Bill

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