I need to do some research to look back and see the last time Raleigh had an ice storm this late in the season. A couple inches of snow is easier to achieve than a prolonged subfreezing ice event (because you can get a couple inches of snow. it lays. it’s pretty. and then it melts several hours later or the next day.)
As I seem to say with every event…it’s a complicated setup…and still much discrepancy in the modeling. Actually, this looks to be a one-two punch. Tomorrow afternoon we begin with moderate to heavy soaking rains on top of already saturated soils and streams overnight (some minor river flooding). And cold air begins to ooze in late from an advancing Canadian airmass (eh!). The colder air begins to arrive as the heaviest axis of moisture from the first round exits. We’re left in a relative minimum of light precip going into Monday AM and thru the day Monday. However, there looks to be enough cold air and moisture to combine for a little freezing rain as we hover just at freezing (more moisture than progged would be bad.) Then the timing of a secondary low riding up the coast as the near freezing temps are in place comes into question. It looks like moisture will arrive overnight Monday into Tuesday AM to cause more significant freezing rain before the self-limiting physics of freezing rain warms the area (SE to NW) enough on Tuesday to turn everything to rain.
So what does it mean? Bad or no? 2-3 days out in the middle of March…I’m inclined to err on the side conservative climatology, which casts a large cloud of skepticism on the likelihood of a significant impact for the Triangle. For now let’s wait and see more data…which will probably only find us agonizing over the same questions two days from now!
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