The Main Event

Round 1 is coming to a close for NC, but not before some impressive snow totals were squeezed out, especially in places like New Bern where up to 6″ have been reported.  Elsewhere, south of Wake county more general 1-4″ accumulations were observed into the Sandhills.

Today’s snow was a foretaste of the much stronger headline storm that arrives tomorrow.  I don’t have big changes to make at this time from previously outlined ideas.  The new 12Z Euro shows a slight shift to the east of the storm track, more in-line last night’s Euro ensemble mean.  But I continue to favor a track even just a little farther east, which would take it right over Cape Hatteras.  This is where I could be wrong, in which case snow totals would be reduced in favor of more ice.

As I’ve said before the QPF (liquid equivalent) is becoming a matter of certainty for this event.  Latest SREF (short term ensemble suite) mean QPF is 1.35.  The favored Euro 12Z deterministic is at 1.6″ and last night’s Euro ensemble mean was also right at 1.6″.  Again, lots of precip to fall.  And most, if not all will be frozen.

To review what will happen tomorrow.  Precip should arrive in Triangle around lunch in the form of snow.  Snow should accumulate several inches before mixing with and changing to sleet.  Sleet should accumulate quite a bit before changing to freezing rain. Then, as the low passes there is growing evidence that more snow will occur to the tune of a couple of inches in a formidable deformation zone wrapping about the comma head of the surface cyclone.

Blah, blah, blah…just give me the number!  Here’s my thought for Raleigh, which is basically the same as yesterday, plus bonus on the backside.  3-5″ of snow/sleet, plus .35-.5″ of ice, plus 1-3″ of snow Thurs AM in the comma head.

This evening maybe we can talk about what might go wrong…like Gulf convention limiting northward moisture transport and getting dry slotted and a far inland storm track that would cause a changeover to rain even to the Triangle.

Comments (4)

  1. 5:20 PM, February 11, 2014Jeff  / Reply

    Ack! Anything but rain!

    Thanks for the update!

  2. 5:35 PM, February 11, 2014Kathy  / Reply

    Thanks so much for keeping us posted and helping us understand the complexity of predicting storms. So glad a friend told me about your website and twitter posts! Love it!

  3. 6:32 PM, February 11, 2014lowell  / Reply

    I second what Kathy said. Thanks for the insight.

  4. 11:04 PM, February 11, 2014Cphillips  / Reply

    Fascinating! Just fascinating! So complex and interesting! Thanks for your up to date reports!

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