Call Me Maybe

I said earlier in the week that the weekend system would bring, at minimum, a good chance for a flurry, even as the extent of the coastal cyclogenesis was uncertain.  Well, here we are less than 48 hrs from the event and what I can tell you is…”well, there’s a good chance of a flurry and we don’t really have a good handle on the extent of the costal cyclogenesis.”  Hmm.

No need to bore you with the history of the evolution of the thinking from earlier in the week to now, but suffice it say, the trend of the models over the last couple runs has been to flip back to a stronger coastal storm.  So, i’m pretty confident the Triangle will see snow Saturday afternoon/evening.  Of course, the question is how much.  The trends favor at least a little accumulation.  But, you have to remember that ground temps are really warm, and it will be over 60 tomorrow.  That being said, we do have models coming in tonight with 4″ in Raleigh.  Ok, I shouldn’t have divulged that…calm down!

For now…let’s just say that we have a difficult forecast for Saturday.  And let me remind you all that cyclogenesis of any kind is one of the most vexing forecast headaches facing meteorologists.  But, East Coast cyclogenesis is particularly complicated and only maybe 90% understood.  It’s that 10% that still gets us in trouble.  Can you say January 2000?!?!  By no means am I say that’s going to happen, just this is a scenario where the margin of error is W – I – D – E.

More tomorrow…

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