Trex On Weather

And the parade of storms continues this week with a mid-week blizzard for the northern Mid-Atlantic…north of the heaviest snow from this weekend’s blizzard in DC to PHL.   For us…another cold raw rain on Tues night/Wed before that storm gets crankin’ up the coast.

More interesting for us, is the next “float in the parade”, which could headline as a southern snowstorm special from Texas across the deep south.  I mentioned this earlier as the storm that will be suppressed south, and could miss us out to sea (wide right).  That’s certainly a possibility as NC and southern VA would be the northern edge of the precip shield for this.  With could air in place this could be one of those rare times when FAY gets more snow than Roxboro.  We’re talking about the Friday timeframe for this, so there’s plenty of time to sort it all out.  In the meantime…”76 trombones led the big parade, with a 100 and 10 cornets…”

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…it’d be 15-20″.  But hey, we can fantasize about being in DC where they’ll get 2-2.5 feet or in western Maryland where it might be closer to 3 feet.  My 2-year old’s head wouldn’t be visible in snows that deep.  Ah, sweet dreams for tonight.

About next week…I think the evolution of the mid-week storm will mean that we miss it again with a forerunning low heading up the Ohio Valley and secondary low development off our coast while we’re too warm.  Could be another significant storm for the East Coast, but probably only adding several inches rather than more feet in the snowpacalypse Mid-Atlantic…perhaps better totals a little farther north this time around.

Then a nice shot of cold air is pulled down in this storm’s wake for the eastern Conus.  But, the push looks to be so strong that it suppresses the southern jet stream so far south that the storm track for the next Fri/Sat storm will miss us out to sea.  That’s what the ’snowglobe’ says now, but there’s plenty of time for things to change.  Longer term indications are that we can expect this wet, colder than normal pattern to continue all the way thru the end of the month!  Plenty of chances for more cold rain, I guess…but hopefully warm snow!

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Beginning late tonight we should see the precip enter the area from the west and south on a little quicker timetable than first thought.  As I mentioned this morning, that will provide a longer window for wintry precip on the front end of this storm.  I think that the NWS has decided to issue an advisory from Durham west, and there may even be enough snow toward morning for that to be extended into Wake county as well, certainly no farther east, though.  This will be the line where the mix of rain and snow starts.  Precip is expected to be light thru tomorrow morning as a lot of precip will go toward moistening the column.  If there were some decent bands of precip though, there could be some bursts of nice snow.  Worst (best) case scenario is an inch to at most two as you head west.

Then Friday morning, as i’ve said, most everyone gradually progresses from snow to rain/snow to freezing rain to rain.  And the rain coming in the afternoon and evening could be heavy so there’s likely to be some minor flooding.  Then Sat morning we’re back to the question of the elusive wraparound snow or not.  Most all the models have been consistent in showing at least some.  So we’ll follow that trend tomorrow.

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